ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skillz305]

Here’s the weather we endured from Ian last night into today in Vero Beach.

[Stormcenter]

My sincere condolences Sanibel.

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

[Steve H.]

Ian strengthens again. As expected, and looking at current satellite images, Ian is back over warm water and strengthening. Will be interesting to see how this works out.

[Steve H.]

Ian strengthens again. As expected, and looking at current satellite images, Ian is back over warm water and strengthening. Will be interesting to see how this works out.

[BocaGirl]

I am truly heartbroken to read that Sanibel's mother perished in Ian. Sanibel is Storm2K Family. Please accept my condolences.
BocaGirl
Barbara

[weeniepatrol]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 291500
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Ian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2022

The center of Ian has emerged into the western Atlantic Ocean to
the north of Cape Canaveral. While satellite images show the
system is becoming a hybrid cyclone, with frontal features outside
of the core of Ian, the winds from multiple sources are notable.
Velocity data from NWS Doppler radar indicate maximum winds of about
70-75 kt at 10,000 ft over land, and sustained winds of about 55 kt
were recorded in the Daytona Beach area earlier this morning. These
data support a higher initial intensity, now 60 kt for this
advisory.

The storm is moving northeastward at about 8 kt. Ian has stubbornly
gone east of the track forecast for the past couple of days and has
moved back over water faster than expected. A mid-level shortwave
trough moving southward across the southern United States should
turn Ian northward overnight and north-northwestward on Saturday.
The official track forecast is shifted to the east, consistent with
the latest consensus guidance.

Ian should move over the Gulf Stream tonight and tomorrow for a
longer period of time than previously anticipated, which should
maintain Ian's central convection. Additionally, an increased
pressure gradient on the northwestern side from a stationary front
near the southeastern US, should provide a boost to the wind speeds
on that side of the storm. We now expect Ian to become a hurricane
again by this evening. As the system approaches South Carolina, Ian
should maintain this intensity, and Hurricane Warnings have been
issued for the entire coast of South Carolina. This scenario is
consistent with the global and regional hurricane model guidance.
It is worth noting that Ian is forecast to have atypical structure
when it nears the southeastern United States, and strong winds will
extend well ahead of the center, even on the northwestern side.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge through Friday
along the coasts of northeast Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected across the South Carolina
coast beginning early Friday, where a Hurricane Warning has been
issued. Hurricane conditions are possible by tonight along the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia, where a Hurricane Watch
is in effect. Preparations should be rushed to completion since
tropical-storm-force winds will begin well before the center
approaches the coast.

3. Ongoing major-to-record river flooding will continue across
portions of central Florida, with considerable flooding in northern
Florida. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across
coastal portions of northeast Florida through Friday. Local
significant flooding in southeastern Georgia and eastern South
Carolina is expected through the end of the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 28.7N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 30.0N 79.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 31.8N 79.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 34.0N 80.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 01/1200Z 35.9N 81.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 02/0000Z 37.0N 82.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Steve H.]

Yes, my condolences Sanibel. That’s awful news.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

So sorry to hear of your loss. Prayers to you and your family.

[wxman57]

I haven't had much time to post here the past day or so. Someone was asking why the moderators aren't addressing the bashing going on. Just no time, for me. I only read that one page of the thread. Haven't seen much imagery of the damage in the Ft. Myers/Sanibel area. Sorry to hear about Sanibel's mother. Was she on the island? So many people didn't take Ian as seriously as they should have, or perhaps there was nowhere to go. My mother was in that predicament with Katrina. No hotels could take in any guests.

Looking at Ian today, it's decidedly less than tropical looking. Seems to be attaching to a cold front that is sweeping across the Peninsula. Mid 60s temps all along coastal Carolinas and Georgia, down to Gainsville, FL. I don't think Ian will really be truly tropical for much longer. That means no core of high winds when it reaches SC near Charleston around noon tomorrow, but TS winds may extend to the Outer Banks. Large wind field, but no real core. Gotta go, another meeting.

[kassi]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I'm so sorry for your loss.

[Kohlecane]

Are they planning any recon into IAN before a second landfall?

[Charleswachal]

Hey guys, I am new to the forum although I have been reading it for a long time.

I want to say my aunt lives in cape coral and had total destruction of her garage and pool house however her house itself is elevated and suffered minor damage. Actually some of her neighbors who stayed had total loss of their homes and they went and hid in her house.

[weeniepatrol]

Hey guys, I am new to the forum although I have been reading it for a long time.

I want to say my aunt lives in cape coral and had total destruction of her garage and pool house however her house itself is elevated and suffered minor damage. Actually some of her neighbors who stayed had total loss of their homes and they went and hid in her house.

I'm sorry your first post has to be so somber. Welcome.

Is everyone okay?

[kassi]

 https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704






 https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761

[Coolcruiseman]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

So sorry to hear this. Condolences. Your family is in my thoughts and prayers during this time.

[Beef Stew]

My sincerest condolences, Sanibel. My thoughts are with you and your family.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I am so, so sorry.

Most of us are strangers here, I know, but I feel like many of us have gotten to know each other over the years and become what I call “annual friends”. You are one of those folks and I am genuinely sorry, my friend.

I want to second this...I don't think I could say it better than Evenstar. So sorry

[PandaCitrus]

There were a bunch of aerials of Sanibel Island, Ft. Myers Beach, Bonita Beach on TV this morning. I would say the wind damage on newer built homes and buildings built to proper elevation was minimal but the surge damage was very extensive. Looks like the first 10-15 feet of every structure was gutted and there were a number of catastrophic failures of older homes and structures not built to current elevation standards.

[Old-TimeCane]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

So sorry to hear this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

https://twitter.com/swmurfl/status/1575498520370376704?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw



https://twitter.com/aaronjayjack/status/1575480232798453761?s=20&t=vjaLm0ZwYewwRIE62iWQdw

My parents got word last night from a friend of a friend (I don't know how reliable, but my mother is trying to hold out hope their house they are renting is still there so I'm not arguing) that their house didn't get flooded but there was "some" damage. The house is about 1.5 miles from the inlet, so I don't know how bad it is. It is on the north end of Bonita Springs at Pelican Landing.
Now I have to worry about my sister in Charleston. I am very ready for Ian to go away.