ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve H.]

Winds are again ts force in satellite beach in southern brevard county. Losing power on and off. Thought I was done

[Jr0d]

Heard one the Key West characters "Bongo Jorge" died on a boat during Ian.

If you spent anytime in Key West the past 10 years and saw a skinny guy, sometimes with "war paint" on his face and often shirtless riding around his tricycle with a giant Conch Republic flag, that was Bongo Jorge.

[dpep4]

Anchor on NBC2's live coverage just told the story of his friends in Ft. Myers Beach. In their 60's, when their home was completely destroyed by storm surge they had to swim to a neighbor's house. They were pelted by debris such as nails and wood and ended up swimming into their neighbor's 2nd story window. Were not sure that home would survive, but it did and they are ok today.

Told the story in response to the soundbite of the President saying this may end up the deadliest hurricane in FL history, as in we don't know much yet but we know that destruction is widespread.

[ncmark]

The stories coming out of Florida are heartbreaking. And it isn't over yet - watching carefully here in NC. I have friends in Carolina Beach and Wilmington.

I have come here for storm updates for more years than I can remember. Hurricane Fran in NC is the worst I've experienced (79mph gusts recorded inland here Raleigh at RDU). Having this resource helps me better understand what is happening with these storms. I cannot imagine hurricane season without access to storm2k.org and these forums. That is why I finally became a supporter this year. I do either $5 or $10 a month, which I fortunately do not miss. I figure every bit helps and recurring income is better than bursts.

I'm just a lurker, but I encourage everyone who is relying on this forum to also consider becoming supporters. I shudder to imagine knowing a storm is brewing and not being able to check here to see what the experts are saying.

Sympathies to those who have suffered loss. And everyone be careful in the cleanup - too many were injured or killed in the Raleigh metro area in the awful aftermath of Fran. And good luck to those still to be affected.

[Beachside]

Winds are again ts force in satellite beach in southern brevard county. Losing power on and off. Thought I was done

Yeah, gettin' sporty again. I didn't think the backside would be this bad, but I guess Ian is gaining back some strength. Winds are approaching almost what they were at the height of the storm last night.

Good news is, looks like maybe another hour or two and the worst will be past us.

Power flickered about 20 times last night, but not so far today. Hoping it stays on.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ian has developed an eye like feature on visible satellite. It also looks to have remained vertically stacked for the most part throughout its passage over the peninsula.

[cheezyWXguy]

Winds are again ts force in satellite beach in southern brevard county. Losing power on and off. Thought I was done

Yeah, gettin' sporty again. I didn't think the backside would be this bad, but I guess Ian is gaining back some strength. Winds are approaching almost what they were at the height of the storm last night.

Good news is, looks like maybe another hour or two and the worst will be past us.

Power flickered about 20 times last night, but not so far today. Hoping it stays on.

Fortunately the worst of that band is gradually moving offshore, hopefully it doesn’t impact the coast for too much longer. Some really cool mesovorts riding down the band.

[Mello1]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

Gosh. Long-time member, but I have seldom posted in recent years. I'm so sorry to hear about your mother. My deepest thoughts and sympathies to you and your family. If there is a Go Fund Me or anything like that set up, I will be more than happy to contribute to it. I can't imagine what Sanibel Isle is looking like right now on top of your having to deal with your loss.

Let us know what we can do to help. I'm sure that I can speak for many here that we appreciate all that you and the mods and Admin do on Storm2K.

[Steve H.]

I remember Fran even in central Florida. Think it was 98, bypassed us but was powerful when it got up to the Carolina’s, even into Virginia

[Jr0d]

Told the story in response to the soundbite of the President saying this may end up the deadliest hurricane in FL history, as in we don't know much yet but we know that destruction is widespread.

Ian will be the costliest in Florida History. Possiblity the deadliest since the 1935 Labor Day storm, lets hope and pray it is not.

[canebeard]

There is exactly 1 perfectly legitimate criticism to have with NHC and it’s not intensity or track. And I say this as someone who expected a landfall in southwest Florida since the storm passed closer than expected to the Isle of Youth and noticing how it was moving east of track Sunday because it looked like crap.

They should’ve put Charlotte and Lee County under a hurricane watch on Sunday Night and not left it from Englewood North. For a few reasons.

1) the Fort Myers market is Charlotte Lee and Collier counties. By not including any county in our DMA under a watch the media severely downplayed the risk potential even given our chances of getting storm surge we’re always higher than Tampa Bay since it was moving north of Marco island unlike Irma. Further 90% of all watches for Lee County in my lifetime start and end at Bonita beach because that’s where the NWS TBW CWA ends. It just didn’t seem worth the risk to not include them.

2) they issued hurricane watches and warnings at 11pm Tuesday and 5AM Wednesday for Charlotte and Lee respectively. Lee County in their infinite stupidity didn’t issue any voluntary or mandatory evacuations until 7AM Wednesday. That was too late for many people. Less than 18 hours before tropical storm force winds start. Not even for the barrier islands. They would have evacuated earlier if we were under a hurricane watch on Sunday as we should’ve been.

3) Irma happened and went east of populated Lee and Collier. So very few got the life threatening storm surge that was advertised. People thought this was another Irma.

I can’t tell you how many people stayed in zone A because they “have a steep driveway “ or evacuated from Zone A to Zone B. I am willing to bet every dollar I have that over 100 people died because very few evacuated. My godmother stayed 1 mile south of Cape Coral yacht club in zone A. I begged and pleaded her to come with me, but she said it was another Irma. I have yet to hear from her since 5pm and also know people who had to vertically evacuate to a second floor. Many did not have that luxury.

The NHC did a FANTASTIC job on the meteorology overall. They did not realize how catastrophic from a social science perspective not issuing a hurricane watch would be for the fort Myers media market Sunday night.

The NHC should never issue watches/warnings based on anything other than their criteria and it's really a very simple criteria. When you start making exceptions(like for DMA or anything else) then you lose consistency and then you lose trust. Your beef is with the government and that's fine. Complacency is always a concern but that's on the citizens. We live in a high-risk area for hurricanes, the media is very good about telling people not to focus on the line. If people stayed in an evacuation zone, tough. Even your grandmother had a warning and she decided to stay and that's ok, she makes her own decision. I have never evacuated but I also have the means to get to my roof and I am at 6.2 ft above sea level. We must stop blaming NHC, government, media and anyone else other than ourselves for preps and ultimately our actions. There is more than ample info when these storms come in.

Just because the media says don’t look at the center of the cone doesn’t mean that people don’t end up looking at the center of the cone. They do. Look at my post history. I brought it up before. The southwest Florida DMA has been hit by 3 major hurricanes before today in the last 18 years. None of them have produced a catastrophic surge event for anything other than barrier islands. This was the first storm where the populated mainland received any significant surge.

I agree that the NHC should be consistent but they were not if you look purely at wind probs graphics they waited until fort myers had over a 50% chance of hurricane conditions while they issued it for englewood when it was 30%.

Also if you are such a meteorological purist that you don’t believe that discretion should ever be used by someone making a watch for the Public for anything other than meteorology then that’s your perogative. Meteorology has been trying to work with social scientists to incorporate this into their messaging for years.

NHC is a government agency that works for the public and not meteorologists. I know my hometown, I know the triggers. They would’ve issued evacuation orders for Charlotte Lee and collier had they issued the watch. They did not and it cost two days of gradual ramp up in evacuations.

The decision cost lives. You cannot change my opinion. It is fact. Widely reported by many media ththat more Tampa residents were prepared than Fort Myers. We were always in the cone but again, despite everyone saying it a billion time to not focus on the dot, they focus on the dot. Even my mom focuses on the dot and her house got annihilated.

The 'ol "cry wolf" syndrome.
But this ain't a kid fantacizing a story. It is science, albeit an imperfecct one. It is quite simple for anyone, who is not a science denier, to grasp that weather forecasts of all kinds are a probabilistic thing.

Analogy: If I told you I would give you $200 to walk across a street blindfolded, in an area where the odds of being hit by a car during that crossing are only 30%, would you take that chance? How many times?

In areas where warnings have gone out several times, and the hurricane didn't come close enough to cause extensive damage, some folks get complacent the next time warnings go out, or don't, for the area adjacent to that cone several days out. If one chooses not to believe in or try to understand science, there is not much, except a direct object lesson, that might educate them.

But in the case of hurricanes, there IS a wolf out there; it is not fake news. Anyone who wants to understand that meteorology is a science, but not a perfect one, can and will. The wolf will attack sooner or later. Especially if you are a complacent sheep.

[Tireman4]

I have come here for storm updates for more years than I can remember. Hurricane Fran in NC is the worst I've experienced (79mph gusts recorded inland here Raleigh at RDU).



I was there too. I was a graduate student at North Carolina Central University in Durham and I remember it well. I had to go to work the next day at 4:30 pm ( Avis never closes..LOL). I remember all the trees were down and the road was littered with debris. I also remember it was raining on and off for days before Fran come up our way.

[weeniepatrol]

AL, 09, 2022092918, , BEST, 0, 289N, 801W, 65, 986, HU, 34, NEQ, 360, 140, 150, 200, 1008, 260, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, IAN

[Beef Stew]

Back up to hurricane strength on the best track. 65kts.

[Rail Dawg]

Sanibel I am so sorry for your loss.

That is heartbreaking.

Chuck

[Mello1]

Being a longtime "lurker" on this forum and now a Florida resident (on the Space Coast) which at least where I was didn't have a great deal of impact I can say this forum has been invaluable.

It's obvious from what we all have seen unfold with Ian that with even the best tools can't foresee 100% what these storms are going to do. Hindsight is 20/20 in terms of when watches/warnings should have been issued further south, however there's also the flip-side. How many would have heeded evacuation orders realistically? When one looks at the situation without emotion (difficult to do if you have friends/family in that area sometimes) doesn't it still come down to personal responsibility for choices? For too many they look to the government and others for direction vs making their own decision. For example I was watching a Brevard EOC update on FB on Tuesday and they mentioned no evacuations. Yet someone commented "what about those in mobile homes?"

Yes it's a horrible situation that has unfolded in the vicinity of where Ian made landfall. I'm sure if the NHC could redo the last 3 days they would have adjusted based on the now recognized trend that Ian consistently moved east of the "track". Same with government officials and issuing evacuation calls. My point is you don't need others to tell you to evacuate or not though. Look at the information provided by the NHC, local meteorologists, etc and make the call on your own.

Also there isn't too much information out there it's that not enough people utilize it.

Well said. Also the impacted area was in the cone and surge warnings were issued -- it's just that areas further south got more than predicted.

[cag1953]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

I'm so sorry Sanibel.

[Rail Dawg]

Any word on the many hurricane chasers?

Chuck

[TallyTracker]

I have come here for storm updates for more years than I can remember. Hurricane Fran in NC is the worst I've experienced (79mph gusts recorded inland here Raleigh at RDU).



I was there too. I was a graduate student at North Carolina Central University in Durham and I remember it well. I had to go to work the next day at 4:30 pm ( Avis never closes..LOL). I remember all the trees were down and the road was littered with debris. I also remember it was raining on and off for days before Fran come up our way.

I remember Fran. I was 6 years old living in Kannapolis, NC. My sister was born the day Fran landfalled. I was thrilled cause I had off school and got a sister! lol

[birdwomn]

Sanibel Causeway had section washed-out...Zero word from island...Chinooks landing at RSW...

My mother died during Ian in the storm...

Very sorry to hear this, Sanibel. My condolences to you and your family.