ATL: IAN - Models

[LarryWx]

UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:


TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2022 0 28.4N 80.6W 989 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 12 29.7N 79.4W 984 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 24 31.7N 79.0W 975 63
0000UTC 01.10.2022 36 34.7N 79.2W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 48 36.1N 79.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 60 37.4N 78.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

[GCANE]

Surface Vort is about half naked, now over water.
Looks like its entraining 3000 CAPE air into the core.
Let's see if fires back up.

[GCANE]

PV streamer directly SE of the core.
An inhibiting factor. Will need to shake this off for any type of significant strengthening.

[GCANE]

Surface vort well east of forecast track.
Could mean more time over water.

[tolakram]

Surface vort well east of forecast track.
Could mean more time over water.

This is the models thread, I think you want Discussion

[Vdogg]

UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:


TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2022 0 28.4N 80.6W 989 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 12 29.7N 79.4W 984 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 24 31.7N 79.0W 975 63
0000UTC 01.10.2022 36 34.7N 79.2W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 48 36.1N 79.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 60 37.4N 78.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

Yikes! One more shift east like that and it's hitting NC proper. I hope those folks are paying attention...

[Kingarabian]

UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:


TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2022 0 28.4N 80.6W 989 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 12 29.7N 79.4W 984 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 24 31.7N 79.0W 975 63
0000UTC 01.10.2022 36 34.7N 79.2W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 48 36.1N 79.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 60 37.4N 78.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

Yikes! One more shift east like that and it's hitting NC proper. I hope those folks are paying attention...

Yeah getting really close at the last minute. Thankfully should be moving at a fast clip.

[LarryWx]

UKMET, the most accurate model for Ian since the 0Z Sept 25th run, has it again landfalling well NE of Charleston. The 0Z had it landfalling just SW of Georgetown. This run has the center landfalling a good bit further NE than the 0Z, 25 miles NE of Georgetown/just SW of Myrtle Beach:


TROPICAL STORM IAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 80.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092022

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2022 0 28.4N 80.6W 989 46
0000UTC 30.09.2022 12 29.7N 79.4W 984 54
1200UTC 30.09.2022 24 31.7N 79.0W 975 63
0000UTC 01.10.2022 36 34.7N 79.2W 987 37
1200UTC 01.10.2022 48 36.1N 79.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2022 60 37.4N 78.8W 1008 21
1200UTC 02.10.2022 72 CEASED TRACKING

Yikes! One more shift east like that and it's hitting NC proper. I hope those folks are paying attention...

Based on model consensus still shifting NE and the center maintaining an east of track movement, I currently think landfall will be within the Myrtle Beach to Wilmington, NC area.

[ColdMiser123]

12z Euro deepens this to 976 mb before making landfall in Charleston. Actual pressure is a few mb lower than what the Euro had at 2 pm today.

[Vdogg]

12z Euro deepens this to 976 mb before making landfall in Charleston. Actual pressure is a few mb lower than what the Euro had at 2 pm today.

Euro appears to stall it in it’s current location and then shoot it nearly due north to Charleston. Does that seem accurate? I haven’t seen any evidence of this stall and turn just yet on radar.

[Vdogg]

The COC is nearing the eastern edge of this cone. If it follows the exact path of that cone from here on out it will landfall north of Charleston around Myrtle Beach. I don’t think I’m buying Euro.

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... te=1&hur=1

[dspguy]

Model question:

On that picture, "OFCI" is the "official track" right? That's ultimately the center line of the NHC forecast cone? If so, why is the OFCI line the westmost? Wouldn't the OFCI be sort of the consensus in the middle of all of the other ones?

[tolakram]

Model question:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png
On that picture, "OFCI" is the "official track" right? That's ultimately the center line of the NHC forecast cone? If so, why is the OFCI line the westmost? Wouldn't the OFCI be sort of the consensus in the middle of all of the other ones?

No. They use the Florida State super ensemble model plus forecasting to create a track. Not all models are created equal and have differing weights in that ensemble.

[hohnywx]

Model question:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/09L_tracks_latest.png
On that picture, "OFCI" is the "official track" right? That's ultimately the center line of the NHC forecast cone? If so, why is the OFCI line the westmost? Wouldn't the OFCI be sort of the consensus in the middle of all of the other ones?

In this particular instance, the track hasn't been updated since 11 a.m. and these models came out after that. But the NHC does not have to be in the middle of the models. They usually follow the TVCN (which is a consensus model) closely.

[tolakram]

12Z Euro

[Vdogg]

What's "EGRI" stand for on model guidance?

[Kingarabian]

What's "EGRI" stand for on model guidance?

UKMET

[LarryWx]

 I'm favoring the 12Z UKMET track (just S of Myrtle Beach) over the 12Z Euro (just S of CHS) for the 2nd landfall. As of 2PM EDT, whereas the Euro had it at 29.1N, 80.0W, the  better performing (for Ian) UKMET had Ian at 28.9N, 80.0W, which is exactly where the NHC had it then. So, advantage goes to UKMET as of then.

 Looking ahead, both the 11 AM NHC and the 12Z Euro have Ian going no further west than 79.9W while still east of N FL. But the 12Z UKMET gets it further east to 79.4W. That will be a key. Will Ian while still east of N FL get close to the 79.4W of the UKMET or will it lag behind and be closer to the NHC/Euro longitudes of 79.9W?

[mantis83]

i haven't seen nhc mention the fsu superensemble in any of their discussions recently, unless i missed it?

[Vdogg]

What's "EGRI" stand for on model guidance?

UKMET

Thanks