ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

Death toll is up to 30 now in Florida. With that and the missing migrants from that boat that sunk, this may go way higher...

Unfortunately this undoubtedly has been the deadliest Florida hurricane since the 1935 Labor Storm. I never thought I would say this, but it could possibly exceed that storm.

While I lost a lot, so many others lost everything. Truly a catastrophe.

[cycloneye]

Death toll is up to 30 now in Florida. With that and the missing migrants from that boat that sunk, this may go way higher...

Any source to that info? To have a archive about that in this thread.

[wxman57]

Charleston is the only station reporting TS winds (standard airport obs). NW at 39 gusting 53 kts in the heaviest squalls NW of the center.

[galaxy401]

Death toll is up to 30 now in Florida. With that and the missing migrants from that boat that sunk, this may go way higher...

Any source to that info? To have a archive about that in this thread.

Sure thing, here is a link I found:

https://twitter.com/ElijahWeather/status/1575850450384875522

Not the most reliable admittedly, but everyone is still assessing damage so it will probably bounce around more.

[SecondBreakfast]

Death toll is up to 30 now in Florida. With that and the missing migrants from that boat that sunk, this may go way higher...

Any source to that info? To have a archive about that in this thread.

Haven’t seen 30, but have seen 20-25, and I think that’s with only two reported deaths from Lee county, which we know will go up. This link has “more than 21”

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weath ... story.html

[cycloneye]

Death toll is up to 30 now in Florida. With that and the missing migrants from that boat that sunk, this may go way higher...

Any source to that info? To have a archive about that in this thread.

Sure thing, here is a link I found:

https://twitter.com/ElijahWeather/status/1575850450384875522

Not the most reliable admittedly, but everyone is still assessing damage so it will probably bounce around more.

Thank you. If there are more updates on the number of fatalities, post them.

[MetsIslesNoles]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Latest VDM has it a few miles off shore.
Drop measure 100% RH at 850 mb
Rain rate near 60 mm/hr.
Definitely potential to ramp up if had more time over water.
Another I storm to retire.

[tropicwatch]

Latest VDM has it a few miles off shore.
Drop measure 100% RH at 850 mb
Rain rate near 60 mm/hr.
Definitely potential to ramp up if had more time over water.
Another I storm to retire.

Sure looks like it has put on the breaks refusing to go inland.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1575899482713358336

[wxman57]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

Agree that the cone is absolutely meaningless as far as indicating a threat or possible impacts. The general accuracy of forecasts over the past 5 seasons (current cone) likely bears no resemblance to current uncertainty or possible impacts. In this case, the cone did not include Lee County because landfall uncertainty here was higher than the 5 season average. Cone never changes, though. It's always the same for every advisory with every storm, all season long.

What's needed is a probabilistic cone based on current storm wind field size and ensemble data. Trouble with that is the ensemble data for 8am EDT, for example, isn't all available until around 5pm EDT. Takes too long to get the ensemble data from the European run after the deterministic run is in. Forecasts were good. Hurricane into the coast near Ft. Myers from 24 hours out. Just minor heading changes were the difference between Tampa and Ft. Myers, same as with Charley.

Forecasts would have been shifted southward to Ft. Myers more quickly if the GFS had not been pulling the consensus model well northward across the peninsula. We ignored the GFS and compensated by adjusting the track farther south than the NHC. In the heat of battle, so to speak, it's hard to identify what model to trust. I knew that the GFS would be too slow and too far west, as it always is with a westerly sheared storm in the Gulf. But how much farther east/south would it track? That's the hard part.

[Teban54]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

One thing that I think hasn't been stressed enough is that, based on historic data, there's a 1/3 chance of the track falling outside the cone.

[wxman57]

Center appears to be just offshore to the ESE of Myrtle Beach. No TS winds in Myrtle Beach yet. Charleston peak gust was 54 kts. Still looking for sustained TS winds along the coast except for Charleston.

[wxman57]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

One thing that I think hasn't been stressed enough is that, based on historic data, there's a 1/3 chance of the track falling outside the cone.

That's worthless, though. The cone represents that 66.7% of the time the center was within the cone over the past 5 seasons. If the cone was based upon true current uncertainty and included wind field size, then it would be of some value (as I mentioned above). I deal with people every day that think they're safe if their location is outside the cone. People just do not understand.

[typhoonty]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

Agree that the cone is absolutely meaningless as far as indicating a threat or possible impacts. The general accuracy of forecasts over the past 5 seasons (current cone) likely bears no resemblance to current uncertainty or possible impacts. In this case, the cone did not include Lee County because landfall uncertainty here was higher than the 5 season average. Cone never changes, though. It's always the same for every advisory with every storm, all season long.

What's needed is a probabilistic cone based on current storm wind field size and ensemble data. Trouble with that is the ensemble data for 8am EDT, for example, isn't all available until around 5pm EDT. Takes too long to get the ensemble data from the European run after the deterministic run is in. Forecasts were good. Hurricane into the coast near Ft. Myers from 24 hours out. Just minor heading changes were the difference between Tampa and Ft. Myers, same as with Charley.

Forecasts would have been shifted southward to Ft. Myers more quickly if the GFS had not been pulling the consensus model well northward across the peninsula. We ignored the GFS and compensated by adjusting the track farther south than the NHC. In the heat of battle, so to speak, it's hard to identify what model to trust. I knew that the GFS would be too slow and too far west, as it always is with a westerly sheared storm in the Gulf. But how much farther east/south would it track? That's the hard part.

There were 3 days of consecutive shifts southeast. No one took it seriously, 90% of people who were supposed to evacuate stayed. The cone should include Hurricane wind radii to the edge at least. Too many people think not in cone = no danger. We were both on the same page Sunday and Monday that it would settle further south than the center of the cone.

When I do analysis, the number one thing I do is go to tropical tidbits, look at 500 mb chart, and see if there is ANY deviation in ANY direction with troughs and ridges between the analysis and previous T+6 using the trend feature. I noticed during Irma the ridge was constantly being forecast too weak at T+6 vs analysis 5 days before and warned my folks to evacuate because the threat was higher to southwest Florida than was portrayed.

During Ian, I did the same thing and noticed the trough being under amplified since Sunday. That, combined with it's lack of organization on Sunday allowed it to gain just enough latitude to produce this catastrophic result.

[Nuno]

Listening to FEMA / Governor's press conference in Lee county right now, and I have to agree with the posters that have said we need something different than the cone in the future. Both FEMA and the Governor were quick to talk about Lee county not even being in the cone 72 hours before landfall. First, Lee was on the border of the cone 72 hours before. Second, it's obvious even the officials can't message the point that the cone is just for the center of the storm. Maybe we should go back to a 3 day cone plus a potential impact map? I wish I had answers. The NHC did a good job with a very tough forecast, but there needs to be a change in messaging.

Agree that the cone is absolutely meaningless as far as indicating a threat or possible impacts. The general accuracy of forecasts over the past 5 seasons (current cone) likely bears no resemblance to current uncertainty or possible impacts. In this case, the cone did not include Lee County because landfall uncertainty here was higher than the 5 season average. Cone never changes, though. It's always the same for every advisory with every storm, all season long.

What's needed is a probabilistic cone based on current storm wind field size and ensemble data. Trouble with that is the ensemble data for 8am EDT, for example, isn't all available until around 5pm EDT. Takes too long to get the ensemble data from the European run after the deterministic run is in. Forecasts were good. Hurricane into the coast near Ft. Myers from 24 hours out. Just minor heading changes were the difference between Tampa and Ft. Myers, same as with Charley.

Forecasts would have been shifted southward to Ft. Myers more quickly if the GFS had not been pulling the consensus model well northward across the peninsula. We ignored the GFS and compensated by adjusting the track farther south than the NHC. In the heat of battle, so to speak, it's hard to identify what model to trust. I knew that the GFS would be too slow and too far west, as it always is with a westerly sheared storm in the Gulf. But how much farther east/south would it track? That's the hard part.

But even amateurs here were insistent that GFS was out to lunch, what mechanism prevented the NHC from adding less weight to the GFS and its ensembles leading up to landfall? You could ignore the GFS in your professional setting, why couldn't the NHC? Is this also why watches were so delayed?

It does seem in recent years the NHC is far more cautious in issuing watches all around. I noticed many times in SEFL that we get TS watches for what would've been a hurricane watch in the past. Great, we have better forecasting capabilities now, but when it comes time to actually pull the trigger for a watch (and also for PTC's as I have noticed) it comes off as somewhat arbitrary when matched up to potential impacts? Like at what point does the NHC issue a TS watch, when the probability exceeds >40%? >75%? I am genuinely curious as I do not know this aspect of how the NHC operates.

[wxman57]

Myrtle Beach wind just shifted from the east at 15 gusting 29 kts. Was from the NE. Peak gust past 3 hrs was 42 kts. Peak sustained wind only 28 kts. Center is on the coast just south of Myrtle Beach.

KMYR 301728Z AUTO 09015G29KT 2 1/2SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC013 24/23 A2927 RMK AO2 PK WND 08029/1725 WSHFT 1714 PRESFR P0005
KMYR 301702Z AUTO 03016G24KT 3SM RA BR BKN006 OVC012 20/20 A2930 RMK AO2 CIG 004V009 PRESFR P0003
KMYR 301656Z AUTO 05012G23KT 1 1/2SM +RA BR BKN006 OVC012 19/19 A2932 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1558 CIG 004V009 SLP929 P0134 T01940194
KMYR 301608Z AUTO 02028G35KT 1 3/4SM +RA BR BKN009 BKN015 OVC021 19/18 A2935 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1558 CIG 005V011 P0013
KMYR 301601Z AUTO 02018G39KT 2SM +RA BR SCT009 BKN012 OVC030 19/18 A2937 RMK AO2 PK WND 01037/1558 P0006
KMYR 301556Z AUTO 01026G39KT 3SM RA BR BKN009 BKN022 OVC032 18/18 A2936 RMK AO2 PK WND 02042/1529 CIG 005V012 SLP942 P0046 T01830183
KMYR 301456Z AUTO 01024G35KT 2 1/2SM RA BR BKN009 OVC012 18/18 A2946 RMK AO2 PK WND 04040/1415 VIS 2V4 PRESFR SLP974 P0032 60053 T01780178 56056
KMYR 301452Z AUTO 01022G35KT 2 1/2SM +RA BR BKN009 OVC012 18/18 A2946 RMK AO2 PK WND 04040/1415 VIS 2V4 PRESFR P0030

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/JacquiJerasTV/status/1575903184660447239

[Old-TimeCane]

Just had a gust to 26mph here in Conway. Pressure is down to 991.7mb.