ATL: IAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

I can't confirm this, but Ian may have produced snowfall in the mountains of North Carolina.

[skyline385]

Aftermath video from Reed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOUnv8huw7A

[toad strangler]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Pretty damning assessment of Lee County officials’ actions/inactions here…

Subscription only access. Oh well.

[Category5Kaiju]

Aftermath video from Reed

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOUnv8huw7A

Him saying goodbye to his Dominator car was very poignant, ngl

[HurricaneBelle]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Pretty damning assessment of Lee County officials’ actions/inactions here…

Subscription only access. Oh well.

A little trick: I can't speak for Edge or Chrome but in Firefox, click on "reader view" (the little page icon at the right edge of the address bar) then refresh the page and you can see the whole article.

[tolakram]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Pretty damning assessment of Lee County officials’ actions/inactions here…

Subscription only access. Oh well.

This link should work
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?unlocked_article_code=pJMbcK6UrXrMz6bHYcLXz1IEmSl0zbpHDiSUoXFsGeu8zfiuxRYf-dJisptrREl4h4GjqYOSSrdsWNDaENXhn6skHC2_Ns9DU9B6RC76DSjgqUBirxiV5_S1XI73Iqx1SudgXcwli-1dM84JxASxs5eorDNvinJgNFVU6lt-60g8BrTu88vWanhwAuFdDGZk_qvCQlSOv2SwIf6ZMMsPnpD5QTHhBYEHKLURMU4acj6Zt3UUWDyn_J_81GJjwctF4lABy0rZ8Rkn4nJ1kn2MHiFWU_Vyo2KqFhfZJQu7qJ_AQ1vMF3Gs6Mx6gaJ7yJaJMoRw4gYoK16s1hnAAx7nfSS1yWYOxc08-uHrPBFL2Q&smid=share-url

[skyline385]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share

Pretty damning assessment of Lee County officials’ actions/inactions here…

Subscription only access. Oh well.

Here's a gift link from my sub, should be accessible to anyone who uses it

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/us/hurricane-ian-lee-county-fort-myers-delay.html?unlocked_article_code=nwSRS-bsAxIIBs2NQ0lcHNqYzTurYuv4y_4U-qpm7TeB3byH3Cb0mV_AC_OhNneX874afZl9ShaNirIUKxO9yAHLwxp7D_9QdAZTlnAy0Z4f-SHmo8EyuSJghj5vbHcG603UXSRUY8RVqZ2c0YYgh4JyFsqtBPxTIzTWhxZgIp_stUxumdq_jw9W1rlRi6LKBWAkjR4Vv9PR5TptgGK4U1qPOBC9bwAiLpDOldZCmO-Gtl1oLoXQkrHvtAoKb_iqxG2TimV8j2-2Imt57iFRUC3IMSHoWXgoS7T3l3QxXmOilouy5JJPnXOcIN5AwZ-tZNxFVLLrhiWZZM7JDsv8UcAT0n8w1QwUZyhvh8pc_w&smid=share-url

[tolakram]

I remember even early this season and throughout 2021's and 2020's hurricane seasons, how many South Floridians, including those on the west coast, have frequently raved about how lucky they have been with the "Florida Shield" in particular. Ian imho was such a frightening and incredible storm as it basically shattered the "Florida Shield" concept to pieces and really demonstrated how luck can only go so far to protect people from hurricanes.

I also applaud wxman57 for his early warnings that Florida was at an elevated risk of a major storm this year. With the persistent East Coast troughing this year, imho, it was really only a matter of time before something took advantage of that and the warm ssts to really blow up and recurve northward toward the Florida vicinity. Ian unfortunately did just that.

The Florida shield was a completely tongue in cheek thing. At least it was for me. I refuse to believe anybody actually believed that side banter.

As for ‘57, he pretty much nailed where this storm was going right from his first post on it and never waffled under the pressure of the model huggers.

No, no one was correct early on but 57 was closer and quicker as the storm evolved and models came into more agreement (except the GFS). The issue is, when the correction happened, what did Lee County do.

[Steve]

Here’s an article from Washington Post showing how Ian ranks among Florida storms. It’s too early to know the death toll. And it’s too early to know the financial losses. Other sources have estimates between $50-75B, but it will be several weeks until we know.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate- ... g-florida/

[Iceresistance]

Current ratings on the Southern Florida Hurricane Ian Outbreak.

NE Monroe County: EFU
Western to NW Miami-Dade: EFU
NW Broward County: EFU
Pembroke Pines: EF1
Hollywood-Davie: EF0
Delray Beach: EF2
Wellington (1st Tornado): EF1
Wellington (2nd Tornado): EF1
Moore Haven: EF0

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1576199784322695169



Interesting thread above this.

[typhoonty]

Damn, that is a brutal assessment. Most importantly they violated their own rules. They were looking at modeling AND violating their own risk rules. That is a really ugly situation.

I can tell you every word of this is true. And that's why I said the NHC not issuing a hurricane watch for any county in the Fort Myers DMA was catastrophic. Caused the delay.

[cheezyWXguy]

Damn, that is a brutal assessment. Most importantly they violated their own rules. They were looking at modeling AND violating their own risk rules. That is a really ugly situation.

I can tell you every word of this is true. And that's why I said the NHC not issuing a hurricane watch for any county in the Fort Myers DMA was catastrophic. Caused the delay.

It might have delayed public concern, but it had no bearing on emergency officials enacting a plan. The article states that the plan is set into effect if there is a 10% chance or greater of a >6ft storm surge. As Eric Blake’s tweet says above, storm surge warnings were issued 42 hours in advance. That’s not a ton of time, but it’s not no time either. It’s one thing to blame the NHC for putting out maps that not enough of the public understand, and not updating them. But local emergency officials are obligated to know what these mean and prescribe public action based on them.

[typhoonty]

Damn, that is a brutal assessment. Most importantly they violated their own rules. They were looking at modeling AND violating their own risk rules. That is a really ugly situation.

I can tell you every word of this is true. And that's why I said the NHC not issuing a hurricane watch for any county in the Fort Myers DMA was catastrophic. Caused the delay.

It might have delayed public concern, but it had no bearing on emergency officials enacting a plan. The article states that the plan is set into effect if there is a 10% chance or greater of a >6ft storm surge. As Eric Blake’s tweet says above, storm surge warnings were issued 42 hours in advance. That’s not a ton of time, but it’s not no time either. It’s one thing to blame the NHC for putting out maps that not enough of the public understand, and not updating them. But local emergency officials are obligated to know what these mean and prescribe public action based on them.

I still think the emergency management officials didn't understand that you can have storm surge without a hurricaane warning, and wanted to wait until they were under one to make sure that the evacuation orders weren't frivolous. They likely didn't think storm surge could happen with a TS Warning/ H Watch because we've been hit by 3 major hurricanes in Collier and Lee in the last 18 years and hadn't had a major storm surge event. (Charley, Wilma, Irma)

It's definitely more Lee County EM's fault, but I think that is what happened because evacs were issued 2 hours after the Hurricane warning issuance, and ~24 hours before the surge happened.

[cheezyWXguy]

I can tell you every word of this is true. And that's why I said the NHC not issuing a hurricane watch for any county in the Fort Myers DMA was catastrophic. Caused the delay.

It might have delayed public concern, but it had no bearing on emergency officials enacting a plan. The article states that the plan is set into effect if there is a 10% chance or greater of a >6ft storm surge. As Eric Blake’s tweet says above, storm surge warnings were issued 42 hours in advance. That’s not a ton of time, but it’s not no time either. It’s one thing to blame the NHC for putting out maps that not enough of the public understand, and not updating them. But local emergency officials are obligated to know what these mean and prescribe public action based on them.

I still think the emergency management officials didn't understand that you can have storm surge without a hurricaane warning, and wanted to wait until they were under one to make sure that the evacuation orders weren't frivolous. They likely didn't think storm surge could happen with a TS Warning/ H Watch because we've been hit by 3 major hurricanes in Collier and Lee in the last 18 years and hadn't had a major storm surge event. (Charley, Wilma, Irma)

It's definitely more Lee County EM's fault, but I think that is what happened because evacs were issued 2 hours after the Hurricane warning issuance, and ~24 hours before the surge happened.

That alone is damning, it’s their job to know that. Before hurricane watches were issued, the storm surge graphics showed surge for Lee county exceeding the minimum criteria for their action plan to be enacted, even when the forecast track was north of Tampa. The NHC also made it clear in every advisory discussion back to before Cuba landfall that small deviations east or west would have significant implications on landfall location. I’m with you on the hurricane watches, I think those should have been extended to the south tip of the peninsula, personally. But the local officials ought to know this, it’s not this area’s first time dealing with a hurricane.

[tolakram]

I can tell you every word of this is true. And that's why I said the NHC not issuing a hurricane watch for any county in the Fort Myers DMA was catastrophic. Caused the delay.

It might have delayed public concern, but it had no bearing on emergency officials enacting a plan. The article states that the plan is set into effect if there is a 10% chance or greater of a >6ft storm surge. As Eric Blake’s tweet says above, storm surge warnings were issued 42 hours in advance. That’s not a ton of time, but it’s not no time either. It’s one thing to blame the NHC for putting out maps that not enough of the public understand, and not updating them. But local emergency officials are obligated to know what these mean and prescribe public action based on them.

I still think the emergency management officials didn't understand that you can have storm surge without a hurricaane warning, and wanted to wait until they were under one to make sure that the evacuation orders weren't frivolous. They likely didn't think storm surge could happen with a TS Warning/ H Watch because we've been hit by 3 major hurricanes in Collier and Lee in the last 18 years and hadn't had a major storm surge event. (Charley, Wilma, Irma)

It's definitely more Lee County EM's fault, but I think that is what happened because evacs were issued 2 hours after the Hurricane warning issuance, and ~24 hours before the surge happened.

Doesn't matter, they went against the documented plan. The reason they delayed? Because they had been under warnings before only to have things not turn out as bad. You want warnings earlier, but people behave differently. Don't kid yourself into thinking there's an easy solution here. Had they followed their plan people would have been given evacuation orders.

[tolakram]

Just to document it here, 5AM Tuesday was when warnings were extended south.

[Iceresistance]

It might have delayed public concern, but it had no bearing on emergency officials enacting a plan. The article states that the plan is set into effect if there is a 10% chance or greater of a >6ft storm surge. As Eric Blake’s tweet says above, storm surge warnings were issued 42 hours in advance. That’s not a ton of time, but it’s not no time either. It’s one thing to blame the NHC for putting out maps that not enough of the public understand, and not updating them. But local emergency officials are obligated to know what these mean and prescribe public action based on them.

I still think the emergency management officials didn't understand that you can have storm surge without a hurricaane warning, and wanted to wait until they were under one to make sure that the evacuation orders weren't frivolous. They likely didn't think storm surge could happen with a TS Warning/ H Watch because we've been hit by 3 major hurricanes in Collier and Lee in the last 18 years and hadn't had a major storm surge event. (Charley, Wilma, Irma)

It's definitely more Lee County EM's fault, but I think that is what happened because evacs were issued 2 hours after the Hurricane warning issuance, and ~24 hours before the surge happened.

Doesn't matter, they went against the documented plan. The reason they delayed? Because they had been under warnings before only to have things not turn out as bad. You want warnings earlier, but people behave differently. Don't kid yourself into thinking there's an easy solution here. Had they followed their plan people would have been given evacuation orders.

There is a possibility that they expected Ian to go along the NNE track and the worst impacts to be closer to Sarasota and Tampa, but the storm consistently deviated to the east of the NHC track. Which was why Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, and Sanibel got the worst of Ian.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/EFisherWX/status/1576170452610740224

[Teban54]

Welp.
 https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/1576213604939857921