Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

This wave has my atention by me that lives in PR and lets see if NHC highlights it soon as it looks good.

[Landy]

Right on schedule...

[weeniepatrol]

Indeed



Lemon soon

[weeniepatrol]

6z GFS with a sharp wave into the Caribbean. Given how much models underdid Fiona and Ian, this could be another situation where nowcasting is required.

[weeniepatrol]

We'll see how it maintains as DMAX has now passed.

[weeniepatrol]

Robust divergence aloft as anticyclonic outflow initiates. Strong poleward channel setting up, aided by an upper low to the NW

[cycloneye]

Here we go.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles east of the Windward Islands has
increased over the past day or so. Some gradual development of the
wave is possible during the next few days while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Stormybajan]

I said evening or night for this large wave to be marked but NHC didnt stall and it now has a 10-20 % chance for development...lets see if GFS can reign supreme as the only model showing development!

[weeniepatrol]

[SFLcane]

Impressive wave surely this morning it Might do something before going into Central America it seems.

[gatorcane]

00Z GEFS



06Z GEFS:

[Category5Kaiju]

Impressive wave surely this morning it Might do something before going into Central America it seems.

Much to my dismay, I regret to inform you that while yes it could crash into Central America, quite a few GEFS members take this thing northward and into…yup, poor Florida.

[Hurricaneman]

Ensembles of the GFS are interesting, something the west coast of Florida doesn’t need but there also seems to be equally weighted towards Central America

The Euro and it’s ensembles are all into Central America but as we all know early on the biases in the models and all we can do is keep an eye on it

[SFLcane]

Impressive wave surely this morning it Might do something before going into Central America it seems.

Much to my dismay, I regret to inform you that while yes it could crash into Central America, quite a few GEFS members take this thing northward and into…yup, poor Florida.

06z seems to have more into Central America but yea we’ll see. Surely something to keep an eye on. It might do something and stay south of conus based on eps.

[Hurricaneman]

Impressive wave surely this morning it Might do something before going into Central America it seems.

Much to my dismay, I regret to inform you that while yes it could crash into Central America, quite a few GEFS members take this thing northward and into…yup, poor Florida.

06z seems to have more into Central America but yea we’ll see. Surely something to keep an eye on. It might do something and stay south of conus based on eps.

Also as we know the Euro for west moving tropical systems it tends to overdo ridges while the GFS likes to plow through ridges so we’ll see

[gatorcane]

GEM ensembles. Most got into CA but some recurve into Florida. Strong signal:

[aspen]

Right now the operational models aren’t particularly thrilled with this wave. The GFS’ ghost vorticity bias might be part of the reason, and the magical vorticity it spins up in the Caribbean is interfering with the true vorticity from this wave. Let’s see if this can keep its impressive convection throughout the day and if the operational models start getting as excited as the ensembles.

[tropicwatch]

925mb vorticity is increasing. If convection maintains, I think we will see an increase in development chances this afternoon.

0400


0700

[cycloneye]

925mb vorticity is increasing. If convection maintains, I think we will see an increase in development chances this afternoon.

0400
https://tropicwatch.info/0400vor1001.jpg

0700
https://tropicwatch.info/070010022022.jpg

And the invest tag.

[cycloneye]