Tropical Wave in Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

Squadron with this.

POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 11.6N 54.5W FOR 04/1800Z

[chris_fit]

[skyline385]

:eek:

Was about to post that, GEFS continues to show an uptick in activity. If 12Z EPS confirms the trend then we got another one potentially to look out for.


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[LarryWx]

The series of NHC climo maps showing the history of tracks for ten day genesis periods going back to 1851 is often a good tool to keep in the back of one's mind to try to help in forecasting discussions like this.

The link below is to geneses during OCT 1-10, which would more than likely be the period to cover this one should it form. It suggests that the best chances to form would be either early (mainly between 50W and the LAs) or later in the Caribbean west of 70W (assuming it gets there).

Since that link goes only to 2015, I'll point out that a whopping four TCs had genesis during OCT 1-10 in the W Caribbean just since then:

-Nate of 2017
-Michael of 2018
-Delta and Gamma of 2020

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

[chris_fit]

Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

[cycloneye]

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity continues in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles east
of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of the wave is
possible during the next few days while it moves generally westward
at 15 to 20 mph, reaching the Windward Islands and the eastern
Caribbean Sea by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS ensembles, many turn north in the NW Caribbean and these look like hurricanes. Time for an invest tag:

[skyline385]

This initialization

[Category5Kaiju]

This initialization

https://i.imgur.com/WbuL6b1.png
https://i.imgur.com/g9emKOe.gif

Very accurate indeed. Looks like King Euro is on target here with no formation!

[MarioProtVI]

CMC apparently wants an Iota 2020/Felix 2007 repeat (967 on this res is usually like 30-40 mb above reality)

[skyline385]

This initialization

https://i.imgur.com/WbuL6b1.png
https://i.imgur.com/g9emKOe.gif

Very accurate indeed. Looks like King Euro is on target here with no formation!

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1576636376224710656

[chris_fit]

Nadda really on the 12Z ECMF through 120hrs.

[cycloneye]

Trinidad & Tobago NWS.

[ChrisH-UK]

The wave has health convection and is starting to roll up and organise. Using snow/ice band it see the movement in the lower (white) and upper (gray) layers.

Source - https://col.st/9hrQi

[Category5Kaiju]

The wave has health convection and is starting to roll up and organise. Using snow/ice band it see the movement in the lower (white) and upper (gray) layers.

Source - https://col.st/9hrQi

https://imgur.com/LmYskdV

There's no denying this is probably one of the healthiest waves that this season has featured so far, especially in the MDR. I personally think this will become a TC.

[cycloneye]

He says it.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1576540958254313474

[aspen]

Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/ZpYE5r3.png

It’s remarkable how stark of a contrast there is between the OP and ensemble models, especially the usually WCar tigger-happy GFS. I’m guessing that a combo of poor initialization and interaction with phantom Caribbean vorticity are some of the reasons why the GFS hasn’t shown anything.

[jlauderdal]

Here's the 10 day - Not interested in what comes after this time frame. Will compare to Euro EPS in a few hours.

https://i.imgur.com/ZpYE5r3.png

It’s remarkable how stark of a contrast there is between the OP and ensemble models, especially the usually WCar tigger-happy GFS. I’m guessing that a combo of poor initialization and interaction with phantom Caribbean vorticity are some of the reasons why the GFS hasn’t shown anything.

We saw it with ian and fiona too, early on, its expected.

[Iceresistance]

This is very likely another sleeper wave that we managed to spot that the Models want to have none of it!

[cheezyWXguy]

12z GEPS/CMCE shows a very similar signal to the GEFS