EPAC: JULIA - Models

[cycloneye]

Only model runs here.

[GCANE]

Leeward islands has vigorous convection 10/9 on 12Z 10/2 GFS
Something may happen in this general area around 10/9 or 10/10

[cycloneye]

GEFS.

[zhukm29]

GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/CaFdqgv.png

That member with a sub-930 in the warmest waters of the Caribbean

I guess 2022 got angry we were making fun of it after a dead August... this season could be more impactful than 2021 at this point, even if 2021 exhausted the name list.

[Iceresistance]

GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/CaFdqgv.png

That member with a sub-930 in the warmest waters of the Caribbean

I guess 2022 got angry we were making fun of it after a dead August... this season could be more impactful than 2021 at this point, even if 2021 exhausted the name list.

This is like a certain football game; the first half does not matter compared to the second half because anything can change!

[LarryWx]

The 12Z EPS, though its mean is not nearly as active as the 12Z GEFS, did have a slight increase vs the 0Z EPS with several members having hurricanes vs none that I could see on the 0Z. More than likely, the Euro suite is underdone on the chances of this ending up as a strong TC by the W Caribbean although the GEFS could easily be overdone in the E Caribbean especially.

[Iceresistance]

12Z EPS and GFS Ensembles for 00Z Tuesday Oct 11th

I've moved it to the model thread for you.

[aspen]

There’s a pretty significant timing difference between the CMC/ICON and GEFS. On the former, 91L reaches the Lesser Antilles in about 72 hours (10/5) and hits Central America by 180 hours (10/10). The GEFS takes 24-30 hours longer to reach both points (LAs on 10/6, CA on 10/11 or early 10/12). However, all modes take about 5 days for 91L to travel from the Lesser Antilles to Central America (or its longitude).

[aspen]

Still no development on the 18z GFS. The culprit appears to be the ULL currently sitting to the NNE of 91L. Right now it’s helping ventilate the disturbance, but once 91L reaches the Lesser Antilles, the ULL will be imparting hostile flow into it from the north.

[chris_fit]

Much weaker signal through 72hrs on the 18z GFS Ensembles

[blp]

[cheezyWXguy]

Much weaker signal through 72hrs on the 18z GFS Ensembles

No kidding, it’s like night and day

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1576665872059334657

[Teban54]

0z CMC, slightly further north into Honduras with same intensity as 12z:


0z operational GFS still doesn't develop it.

[ElectricStorm]

First HWRF run incoming. 982mb at hour 72 so far

[ElectricStorm]

First HMON run has it getting down to 991mb pretty quickly before weakening as it reaches the islands.

[cheezyWXguy]

0z gefs has a stronger signal than the 18z did, but looks bound for Central America like the other models showing development

[N2FSU]

TVCN

[N2FSU]

[chris_fit]

00Z Canadian Ensembles



00Z Euro Ensembles



06Z GFS Ensembles