EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022100218, , BEST, 0, 95N, 475W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al762022 to al912022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=123094

[cheezyWXguy]

Here we go…

[REDHurricane]

That was fast, much faster than 98L that turned into Ian was designated by the NHC -- this one looks just as, if not more, threatening at this point unfortunately

[Nimbus]

I hate October storms.

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah this might be a problem...

[kevin]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

[galaxy401]

Ian part two it feels like right now. Though it looks like this one will stay in the Caribbean. Those October Caribbean storms can be monsters so this will be interesting to watch.

[cycloneye]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

Hopefully, no longer than the Ian one. The more long it is, the more threat is.

[Nimbus]

GFS and CMC keep this quite far south CMC crosses the Yucatan about day 10 or 11.
But that is probably because they keep the storm weak.

[Category5Kaiju]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

It really has been a while since we had that kind of system before (last real one was Felix back in 2007). Who knows what this thing will do...

[Iceresistance]

Well, that was fast!

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS and CMC keep this quite far south CMC crosses the Yucatan about day 10 or 11.
But that is probably because they keep the storm weak.

On the other hand GEFS and GEPS show a possibility going further north through the Caribbean. Anything beyond 10 days is entertainment at this point, but the GFS does suggest a pretty decent trough could dig in around that time.

[LarryWx]

Another Caribbean cruiser, here we go again. As per tradition with these sort of invests on storm2k, here's my post saying 'this is gonna be a long thread'.

Hopefully, no longer than the Ian one. The more long it is, the more threat is.

Also, the slower it moves, the longer the thread assuming it remains a threat. This one is moving quite slowly in model consensus. IF this were to move to the W Caribbean and IF it then recurves, the models suggest this could still be a TC near the CONUS a whopping two weeks from now! Ian lasted only 10 days from Invest designation to SC landfall. Also, Ian's Invest wasn't as far east when first designated.

[aspen]

I was on the fence about Fiona and Ian developing, and despite both of them becoming Cat 4s that won’t be around in 2028, I’m still on the fence about this system. Operational model support is pretty lackluster and there’s always the possibility of 91L being too far south and ended up as a much weaker system like Bonnie. However, if 91L’s convection keeps up and its vorticity continues to improve, then I expect at least the OP GFS to catch on in the next 24 hours or so.

Also I’ve been wrong about so much this season, so odds are I’ll be wrong again.

[chris_fit]

12Z EPS and GFS Ensembles for 00Z Tuesday Oct 11th

[jonj2040]

has a good moisture envelope, add getting some of the hot pinks in there.

It looks as if there is some slight rotation here to my untrained eyes but . . .
On these TPW products is that rotation at an upper level similar to how water vapor highlights movement in the upper levels?

Finally, is that another trough pushing down into Florida already with that burst of a low TPW airmass in the last few frames?

[IcyTundra]

My money is on this being more of a threat to CA than anywhere else. Long range modeling indicates that the UL environment in the GOM could be unfavorable if it does end up lifting north.

[Coolcruiseman]

Oh boy is it time to say "Buckle up buttercup for a long ride" already?

[InfernoFlameCat]

If it becomes powerful enough, I do not see the upper level airflow bothering it. These storms like to shred PV streamers. I have no idea what it will do right now though. I am just starting to fear that this storm will be devastating regardless of where it goes.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm expecting the future Julia to become a very strong hurricane with winds between 125 - 145 kt. Just an take, not prediction