ATL: IAN - Models

[Kingarabian]

00z models:
In regards to the NC triangle:

GFS/HWRF shifted back west and away.
CMC shifted east and brings solid TS conditions
UKMET pretty much unchanged

[kassi]

[Kingarabian]

06z NCEP model suite shifted east and is now inline with the the UKMET.

[tolakram]

6Z models

[LarryWx]

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.

[Vdogg]

Very good model agreement now. Myrtle beach it is.

[cycloneye]

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.

Agreed 100%. UKMET has been the king with Ian.

[Old-TimeCane]

6Z UKMET landfalls at Myrtle Beach at 5PM EDT. UKMET has been nothing short of stellar since the 0Z 9/25 run and better than any other model since then! Let's see if it can earn an exclamation mark for its performance here with a near MB landfall.

I think we can give it that exclamation mark.

[LarryWx]

Looking back to the 0Z 9/25 runs at where the models had FL landfalls:

0Z 9/25:
ICON Venice
CMC Cedar Key
GFS Destin
Euro Sarasota
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/25:
ICON Sarasota
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Tampa
UKMET Venice

0Z 9/26:
ICON Venice
CMC Apalachee Bay
GFS Apalachee Bay
Euro Cedar Key
UKMET Port Charlotte

12Z 9/26:
ICON Tampa
CMC Apalachicola
GFS Tampa
Euro Big Bend
UKMET Port Charlotte

0Z 9/27:
ICON Venice
CMC Big Bend
GFS Sarasota
Euro Venice
UKMET just N of Ft Myers

12Z 9/27:
ICON Port Charlotte
CMC Tampa
GFS just N of Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET 20 miles S of Ft. Myers

0Z 9/28:
ICON 15 miles S of Port Charlotte
CMC Venice
GFS Port Charlotte
Euro Port Charlotte
UKMET Port Charlotte

My grades on FL landfall only (i.e., excluding SC landfall) for 9/25-8 runs:

UKMET A-
ICON B
Euro C-
GFS D
CMC F

[LarryWx]

Now I'll look at how these models did for the SC landfall for Ian by looking at the 9/26 12Z through 9/30 0Z runs:
* = goes offshore FL

12Z 9/26:
CMC just E of Columbus, GA
GFS Albany, GA
Euro Columbus, GA
Icon SE GA
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/27:
CMC 100 miles NW of Gainesville, FL
GFS Gainesville, FL
Euro: JAX
*ICON: SAV
*UKMET: CHS

12Z 9/27:
CMC just SW of JAX
GFS JAX
*Euro just S of SAV
*iCON Beaufort
*UKMET CHS

0Z 9/28:
CMC JAX
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 20 mi NE of CHS

12Z 9/28:
*CMC Beaufort
*GFS HHI
*Euro HHI
*ICON CHS
*UKMET just SW of MB

0Z 9/29:
*CMC CHS
*GFS CHS
*Euro Beaufort
*ICON Beaufort
*UKMET G'town

12Z 9/29:
*CMC G'town
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET 25 mi NE of G'town

0Z 9/30:
*CMC MB
*GFS G'town
*Euro CHS
*ICON CHS
*UKMET G'town


Based on the above, I'm giving these grades for the four days of runs preceding the SC Ian landfall:

CMC D
GFS C-
Euro C-
ICON B
UKMET A