EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

I still feel like the odds should be a little higher despite the low model support at the moment. A rotation is evident, just needs more convection.

Maybe the NHC is hesitant to give high odds to a good-looking system without much model support after PTC-4. I think 91L has much lower odds than PTC-4 ever had because of that stubborn ULL, which seems to shear it apart on all of the global models runs.

[hipshot]

ASCAT doing what ASCAT does best Probably the cleanest miss I've seen this year, considering how large the system is!

https://i.ibb.co/0cDfVmL/91-L-ASCAT.png

Oh come on, that had to be deliberate.

Well, luckily we have two scatterometers up there, so if one missed, then surely the other one wouldn't miss as well... especially given how much everyone is anticipating ASCAT for this system...

Even if we don't get it head on, we could at least hope for a half pass—

https://i.ibb.co/w4dtPXP/91-L-ASCAT2.png

Those ASCAT shots aren't random are they, certainly they can kind of "aim" them can't them?

[HurricaneBelle]

I still feel like the odds should be a little higher despite the low model support at the moment. A rotation is evident, just needs more convection.

Maybe the NHC is hesitant to give high odds to a good-looking system without much model support after PTC-4. I think 91L has much lower odds than PTC-4 ever had because of that stubborn ULL, which seems to shear it apart on all of the global models runs.

NHC can give it whatever odds they want, it's not going to affect whether it actually develops.

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022100400, , BEST, 0, 106N, 531W, 25, 1012, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

[Landy]

[REDHurricane]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1026694296302276719/goes16_vis-swir_91L_202210032215.gif?width=927&height=670

Certainly has the bones of a hurricane already, I'm still thinking that this one develops in the next several days despite recent model runs

[Teban54]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1026694296302276719/goes16_vis-swir_91L_202210032215.gif?width=927&height=670

Ian at one point looked more pathetic than this

[Teban54]

Convection definitely on the rise, though still disorganized:

[Sciencerocks]

[Stormybajan]

Best its looked since Sunday, maybe the influence of higher OHC is FINALLY kicking in for 91L? DMAX now so lets see if this convection can build, sustain, or vanish like it did yesterday

[cycloneye]

Best its looked since Sunday, maybe the influence of higher OHC is FINALLY kicking in for 91L? DMAX now so lets see if this convection can build, sustain, or vanish like it did
https://i.postimg.cc/FHmmDFgY/ezgif-com-gif-maker-1.gif

Let's see if it mantains like this as recon arrives early in the afternoon.

[cycloneye]

East of the Windward Islands:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located a
few hundred miles east of the southern Windward Islands have
increased a little this morning, but there are not yet any signs of
significant organization. The wave is forecast to move westward at
about 15 mph, crossing the Windward Islands tonight and early
Wednesday. Some slow development is possible while the wave
continues westward, and a tropical depression could form by late
this week or this weekend over the central or western Caribbean Sea.
Interests in the Windward Islands, the ABC Islands, and the
northern coast of Venezuela should monitor the progress of this
system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[N2FSU]

Convection really firing this morning

[wxman57]

Those ASCAT shots aren't random are they, certainly they can kind of "aim" them can't them?

Yes, the ASCAT passes are completely random. The satellite orbits the Earth once every 90 minutes, passing over a separate swath each time. It's hit or miss with any specific area, though I think the ASCAT purposely misses disturbances that we'd like to look at but it always hits hurricanes/typhoons that have a nice big eye.

[cheezyWXguy]

Visible shows a tight llc just northwest of the deep convection. Looks like less than ideal shear at the moment( but the fact there’s something at the surface now is a big improvement over yesterday

[wxman57]

By the way, this disturbance is highly sheared this morning. The wave axis and rotation are well west of the convection. Look around 12N/56.6W for the rotation. Convection is 85 miles SE. I don't think it'll do much over the next 3-4 days. No need for recon today. Could become a TS before it moves into Nicaragua and/or Honduras early next week. Gulf is closed for business now. See the red crosshairs:

http://wxman57.com/images/91L.JPG

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2022100412, , BEST, 0, 117N, 558W, 25, 1009, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat

[aspen]

The modeled track for this is very similar to Bonnie. As a result, I’m doubtful this develops anytime soon or gets stronger than a Cat 1 at the absolute most. Development could be delayed until it reaches the SWCar, just like Bonnie.

[Blown Away]

AOI near 12N/56W.

[GCANE]

Looks like chances are increasing that something in the GoM may come out of this.