ATL: TWELVE - Remnants - Discussion

[Subtrop]

AL, 92, 2022100312, , BEST, 0, 113N, 264W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al752022 to al922022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/

[aspen]

This might have some decent ACE potential if something like the 6z GFS verifies, and 92L survives all the way into the central Atlantic subtropics. Like with Hermine and Ian, it’ll probably be a close race to which one gets the next name on the list.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT confirms a LLC on 92L

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

This probably has a better chance of developing first and taking Julia. Hopefully we can get a nice OTS hurricane out of this.

[aspen]

12z GFS and CMC both show 92L surviving the eastern Atlantic and getting into the central subtropics. This is the first model cycle with multiple OP models showing this solution.

[ElectricStorm]

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have increased today in association with
an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive
for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two. Further development will become less likely late
this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move west-northwestward and then turn northwestward by
mid-week over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase today near a broad
area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive for
further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form
in a day or two. Further development should become less likely
late this week due to increasing upper-level winds. The system is
forecast to move generally northwestward over the eastern tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Almost a TD.

[Nimbus]

TUTT dropping down on it might shear it so only a weak remnant makes it west to develop there.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-on-92L.png

[Sciencerocks]

[Coolcruiseman]

Where are the models saying what appears could be "Julia" is going to track? The recent NHC outlooks appear to show a potential westward track after going NW.

[Category5Kaiju]

Where are the models saying what appears could be "Julia" is going to track? The recent NHC outlooks appear to show a potential westward track after going NW.

It is expected to make that steep northwestward turn, travel west for a bit, and then recurve well east of Bermuda. I'm fairly confident that this storm will not threaten any land at any point in its life.

[ElectricStorm]

Convection wise this looks like it's just about there. Maybe they're waiting for another ASCAT pass to confirm an LLC, but to me this looks like it's pretty close to a TD if it isn't one already

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A broad low pressure system located a few hundred miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a
large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are currently conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or so while moving
northwestward at about 10 mph over the eastern tropical Atlantic.
Upper-level winds are expected to become less conducive for
development by Wednesday and Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2022100412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 296W, 25, 1008, DB

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit again for 92L.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/ASCAT-2-for-92L.png

[Sciencerocks]