EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 5570
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Looks like recon found some kind of wind shift under the NW tip of the convection? It’s so weak though, honestly can’t tell which seems more transient - the persistent low level swirl out west or the <10kt wind shift in the convection. Probably doesn’t matter much in the grand scheme
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Just went red on the NHC site.
They're not f**ing around with this one.
They're not f**ing around with this one.
3 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22512
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Just went red on the NHC site.
They're not f**ing around with this one.
Yes, good chance of development in 3-4 days. Recon finding a wave axis today.
2 likes
- tropicwatch
- Category 5
- Posts: 3208
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sat Jun 02, 2007 10:01 am
- Location: Panama City Florida
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
I hate it when things get left out of the raw recon data. Like extrapolated pressure
1 likes
Tropicwatch
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Agnes 72', Eloise 75, Elena 85', Kate 85', Charley 86', Florence 88', Beryl 94', Dean 95', Erin 95', Opal 95', Earl 98', Georges 98', Ivan 2004', Arlene 2005', Dennis 2005', Ida 2009' Debby 2012' Irma 2017' Michael 2018'
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
They're in that tower.
Great infeed and near 50 mm/hr rain rate.
Very strong updraft - might be the one that kicks off the surface low.
Great infeed and near 50 mm/hr rain rate.
Very strong updraft - might be the one that kicks off the surface low.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Ensembles are all over the place with this, from Cuba to Panama.
Nothing is certain at this point
Nothing is certain at this point
1 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
AL, 91, 2022100418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 572W, 30, 1008, DB
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:AL, 91, 2022100418, , BEST, 0, 112N, 572W, 30, 1008, DB
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal912022.dat
Right where IR sats have it pegged
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139763
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
3 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
tropicwatch wrote:I hate it when things get left out of the raw recon data. Like extrapolated pressure
A lot of the AF missions in the last month have been missing extrapolated pressures. Hopefully they fix whatever issues the planes are having before the start of next season.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
- Tropical Low
- Posts: 46
- Joined: Wed Aug 08, 2018 5:40 pm
- Location: Lauderdale-By-the-Sea ---> Coral Gables
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1577371178083094529
Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?
4 likes
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Camerooski wrote:cycloneye wrote:
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1577371178083094529
Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?
That is true, but the Subtropical jet is over the GoM, any system that tries to make a run for it would likely be absolutely shredded.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Old vort is starting to die a quick death. LLC in the convection is taking over.
4 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:Camerooski wrote:cycloneye wrote:
https://twitter.com/BillKarins/status/1577371178083094529
Way too early to be making these declarations, have we not learned anything?
That is true, but the Subtropical jet is over the GoM, any system that tries to make a run for it would likely be absolutely shredded.
The only way I can see this system threatening the US at this juncture (and this is very subject to change in the future) is if it gets far enough North that some of the powerful troughs that are modelled to pass through the CONUS pull it into a sharp recurve, potentially impacting the west coast of Fl or the East Coast, which is fairly unlikely but not impossible.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Latest GFS has a Rossby wave dropping down over FL 10/16.
If this wave slows down, it could time 91L in front of it.
Result would be a tug poleward and in the anticyclone - which likely strengthens it.
Pray it doesn't
If this wave slows down, it could time 91L in front of it.
Result would be a tug poleward and in the anticyclone - which likely strengthens it.
Pray it doesn't
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Latest GFS has a Rossby wave dropping down over FL 10/16.
If this wave slows down, it could time 91L in front of it.
Result would be a tug poleward and in the anticyclone - which likely strengthens it.
Pray it doesn't
Some of the GFS ensembles recurve it into Florida but for now they look like outliers.
Last edited by gatorcane on Tue Oct 04, 2022 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests