Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

Chamber of commerce weather, great for the state fair.

FYI in a week's time average highs should be mid to upper 70s and lows mid 50s.

Also want to note that there might be a huge cooldown next week, I may see highs in the 60s! But I don't want to be excited for nothing.

[bubba hotep]

[gpsnowman]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022100312/ec-fast_T850a_namer_11.png

Ahhh yes. It's that time of year for the Barney colors. That would be nice.

[weatherdude1108]

Right direction, for now.

[South Texas Storms]

Right direction, for now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.

[Ntxw]

Right direction, for now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.

I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.

[South Texas Storms]

Right direction, for now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif

Yep, the longer range operational and ensemble guidance are beginning to trend towards a wet pattern returning during the middle part of this month. Let's hope it verifies because it's been weeks since we've seen any rain.

The temperatures have been nice and close to average lately, which has been nice.

I'm a little skeptical about a wet pattern. I do think the fronts will provide enough lift but with much dry dew points of late and no tropical connection and SOI still stubborn, it's going to be toned back as it gets closer as the gut feeling. It is second wet season Afterall so hopefully we get something out of it.

Yeah I understand your skepticism there. But I'm encouraged the models are showing some lower heights over the SW US and Mexico in about 10 days. I'm hopeful most of us can pick up at least 0.50 inch from that system. Euro Ensemble has steadily been showing increasing QPF the past few runs now.

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ec-fast/2022100312/ec-fast_T850a_namer_11.png

The CPC thinks this goes east of us.

[Iceresistance]

Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .

[Cpv17]

Great, the daily SOI is above +30 again . . .

Yeah and honestly I don’t really see any real fronts headed this way anytime soon. I just got through looking at the Euro and GFS and don’t really see too much in the way of cool temps headed this way.

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC, WOW!

[HockeyTx82]

12z CMC, WOW!

Wow in what way?

[Iceresistance]

12z CMC, WOW!

Wow in what way?

May be 10 days out, but wow! Winter wants to come early!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png

Anomalies are crazy low as well

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png

Also has snow (Yes! You heard me right!) in Western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

[weatherdude1108]

12z CMC, WOW!

Wow in what way?

May be 10 days out, but wow! Winter wants to come early!
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2m_us_41.png

Anomalies are crazy low as well
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gem_T2ma_us_41.png

Also has snow (Yes! You heard me right!) in Western Kansas into the Oklahoma Panhandle.

That doesn't seem possible, given our eternal stretch of warm and dry. But then again, this is the year of extremes. Went from "reasonable to ridiculous" overnight (quoting what a local friend said) back in May here. 70s to 100s. Would't surprise me if it goes from 80s to 30s.lol

[Brent]

The end of the Euro also looks chilly

Winter is coming

[bubba hotep]

It looks like the Euro might be trying to pull in some Pacific moisture after 91L crosses over.

[Cpv17]

It looks like the Euro might be trying to pull in some Pacific moisture after 91L crosses over.

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022100412/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Well at least next week it appears we’ll have something to watch. Kinda intrigued about 91L.

[TropicalTundra]

Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.

[Brent]

Euro has Texline going from low 70's to 30's and snow in just 24 hours lol.

Well the last time we had a third year Nina it did snow here in October after September was a torch there's so few analogs for them though

[Iceresistance]

Daily SOI is almost at +40, good grief!