#217 Postby Kazmit » Wed Oct 05, 2022 10:01 am
WiscoWx02 wrote:Category5Kaiju wrote:WiscoWx02 wrote:
wxman57 is usually right about these things, probably going to not form till this weekend…idk about the ceiling on it though. Part of me says a Bonnie repeat while a part of me looks at Iota, Joan, Otto and thinks otherwise.
Personally, I can't really see this being a Bonnie repeat. June had an abnormally sprawling and strong high pressure, which contributed to that storm being confined to SA (not to mention the speed shear it had to handle during that time, which is very usual for June). October climatology is simply not the same, and it is generally more favorable for westward tracking systems through the Caribbean for a reason.
Yeah I agree with your thinking too which is why part of me wouldn't be shocked if it gets much stronger than Bonnie. But Wmman57...idk I like to think he's fairly spot on and he doesn't think it'll do much strength wise. Doesn't mean it won't do much flood wise though of course.
Intensity can be a wild card sometimes. Early on, Ian wasn’t supposed to be more than a low end cat 3 at most.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.