ATL: TWELVE - Remnants - Discussion

[Buck]

Not saying much but perhaps the best it’s looked since being classified. Wish it could claim Julia by 5 AM.

[zhukm29]

TD 12 really wants to get named it seems. If ASCAT registered 28kt to 32kt a few hours ago when it looked much worse, it isn't far fetched to believe this is TS strength now, considering it just needs to reach 34kt. Plus, I think this convective burst is stronger than Kate's last year.

If 6-hour storms like Fausto exist, then I don't see a reason why this can't be designated. This also looks much better than TD11 did, so honestly I think this is a stronger system. I definitely wish we had better ASCAT timing during moments like this

[zhukm29]

Actually, doesn't the NHC round to the nearest 5kt? Thinking about it, if ASCAT retrieved 32kt winds as per the advisory, then 33kt should round up to 35kt and thus TS. Not that it matters anyway since it's just numbers for the season, and more for historical records. But this is as close of a boundary case you can get, where it can honestly go either way, especially since TD12 looks much better than when ASCAT passed over a while back. I guess it will ultimately depend on whether TD12 can persist until the next advisory, and if the NHC is willing to designate a system that it knows won't live too long anyway. Although they've done it before, I wouldn't blame them for being hesitant now and dealing with it in the post-season, especially considering TD12 isn't really a threat anywhere.

Still, I do think TD12 has a good case for reanalysis during the post-season, even if it is not designated now. 32kt is pretty much at the edge of TD/TS strength, and it looks much better now than it did before.

[zhukm29]

Brand new microwave pass of TD12. For a system predicted to die at this moment, it is definitely overachieving.

[wxman57]

Satellite can be deceiving. Exposed low-level swirl is 100 miles west of the convection. Bones is pulling the life support plug. Flatline begins...

http://wxman57.com/images/itsdeadjim.jpg

[Sciencerocks]

[Buck]

It's got an eye! Think it may undergo an EWRC soon?

[Hurricane2022]

It's got an eye! Think it may undergo an EWRC soon?

12L is very small to do it.