Texas Fall 2022
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- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
There are still differences across the models but they are pointing to a pretty good rain setup for Texas. A big cutoff low to our West and a wide open Gulf and EPAC. We could see some big totals and widespread coverage.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Don't worry, things are about to change for the better, just wait several days.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
weatherdude1108 wrote:bubba hotep wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FeWXdBuWAAIMl6H?format=jpg&name=medium
I don’t really see it yet on the models but that’s a good sign for sure. Hopefully it’ll start popping up on the models soon.
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- Tireman4
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..
Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA
Batiste
Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA
Batiste
1 likes
- Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Tireman4 wrote:And speaking of models, the HGX Pro Met, Batiste is a funny guy..
Global models are still pointing towards a deeper upper level trough
digging down into the Northwestern CONUS mid next week that could be
the source of a stronger cold front towards the end of the week.
Uncertainty still remains with it being more than a week out, but
I choose to be hopeful! NBM temperature trends have been downward
after Thursday for the past few days. [b]If I was doing a Lee Corso
style headgear pick for this, I`d have a cold front on my head...
#TeamFROPA[/b]
Batiste
1 likes
The above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.
Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.
Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- jasons2k
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
This is currently my longest rain-free period since 2011. We need rain very badly.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.
Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.
https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png
Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.
Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.
I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
lukem wrote:Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.
https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png
Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).
Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2022
cheezyWXguy wrote:Ntxw wrote:If you look at 500mb charts currently there is a cutoff low/trof in the southwest and digging tof in the E-Central US. Typical patterns as such other years in October would yield chances for rain and much cooler temperatures. But currently that is not the case at the surface.
Ensembles show a change in the North Pacific medium to long term. I'm more optimistic on 'cooler' fronts, meaning a shot of air that is more than getting to normals. SOI + streak has passed 40 days since the last negative reading.
I’ve been wondering about the prospect of southern plains severe weather later this season. Not anytime soon, obviously, but given that…
- the western gulf has remained warm and untapped by TCs (source of moisture/instability)
- NM and AZ saw drought improvement a month or so ago (more limited CIN)
- the southern plains are expected to have normal/above normal temps for the foreseeable future, in contrast with expected colder than normal conditions in the northern US
…it seems like some of the ingredients are there once troughs start digging deeper as we get into fall. Any thoughts?
Admittedly severe weather is a learning curve for me. Trough configuration you'd think provide the parameters for severe weather. But to get it still has to rain, need some kind of moisture influx. What it can allow is a wider window deep into fall due to the warmth, but something has to take advantage of it.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
Ntxw wrote:lukem wrote:Ntxw wrote:DFW too is going through second stretch of such anomalous dry spell.
https://i.imgur.com/z7u2Bux.png
Tidbit...outside of 2015 and 1999 the following winters were pretty chilly on this list.
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).
Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.
September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer.
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The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
weatherdude1108 wrote:Ntxw wrote:lukem wrote:
That chart is very surprising to me. Seems like Texas goes months without rain all the time. I'm in West Texas, so my perspective is probably just skewed (we went almost a year without rain in 2010/2011).
Western half of Texas is arid so yes it is common. But the eastern half no, subtropical climate closer to the southeast than desert southwest. Hot and dry is common but there is always some storms or infrequent rains to cut into the stretches typically even during the hot stretches.
September 7th was the last time it rained at my place. Seems like longer.
My last substantial rainfall was September 7th as well.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2022
How is it gone?Iceresistance wrote:And just like that, the heavy rainfall risk for the Southern Plains is gone. This is getting extremely old, stupid Cockroach Death Ridge!
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