EPAC: JULIA - Models

[kevin]

Both HWRF & HMON show a cat 2 landfall, but note that they also don't get Julia to hurricane strength until 33/36 hours from now. If Julia intensifies at a faster pace then the ceiling could also be significantly higher considering that both models show a deepening rate of ~2 mb/hr before landfall.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET is even a little faster than the 0Z with landfall at 5AM EDT on Sunday in Nicaragua. Also, this run gets her to the Pacific within ~15 hours of the E Nicaragua landfall and thus keeps her as a TC there. She then moves WNW for several days paralleling MX 100-150 mile offshore.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path!

[chris_fit]

The 12Z Euro barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path!

GFS kinda tries to do this too, but gets trapped in the BoC. CMC also kinda shows this.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro barely takes the remnants of Julia into the far E Pacific before then taking much of its remaining vorticity northward up into the Gulf followed by a turn ENE across N FL followed by a turn NE all of the way up the US east coast. Wild path!

GFS kinda tries to do this too, but gets trapped in the BoC. CMC also kinda shows this.

12Z EPS has ~10% of its members do something kind of in a similar way.

[Blown Away]

HAFS making Julia a MH now.

[jlauderdal]

HAFS making Julia a MH now.

Wow, no holding back on that solution.

[ElectricStorm]

Shoutout to the 18z HWRF for showing a nice little 968mb TS

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS shows this getting into the BOC and sends it back south into Mexico, you would think this would get swept east to ENE across the GOM with that setup, may still need to watch Julia possibly in the gulf states as this setup is not that different from Mitch in 1998 even though Julia isn’t going to be a cat 5 like Mitch or even a major IMO

[cheezyWXguy]

Just want to point out that the icon absolutely nailed track and intensity with Julia. There were times I thought it was either too weak, too far south, or both, but it was right. It consistently showed generally the same solution each run since the system first approached the northern coast of South America