EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:


Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.

[Iceresistance]

You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.

Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.

Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.

Indeed. Won't do much for the rain, but I'm sure they'd rather face down a 55 knot TS vs a rapidly intensifying Cat 2.

[LarryWx]

You can clearly see the pickup in shear on satellite loops:
https://i.postimg.cc/LsTMV8HK/goes16-ir-13-L-202210081305.gif
https://i.postimg.cc/xTMjzYbY/goes16-vis-13-L-202210081305.gif
Unfortunate timing (from a storm perspective), just when Julia finally sorted out its LLC.

Might be a good thing for Central America for less storm surge and wind impacts.

Indeed. Won't do much for the rain, but I'm sure they'd rather face down a 55 knot TS vs a rapidly intensifying Cat 2.

But what would do good for the rain is quicker movement like what we have now though some slowdown is progged.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There seems to be some convection firing on the northern side now.
One more thing...if this makes it to the Pacific still a storm and retains its name, have there ever been 2 storms in one season to do so?

[Teban54]

Looks like hot towers are finally rotating upshear, but it's probably too late.

[Category5Kaiju]

Julia's upper-level environment seems otherwise quite favorable for intensification. The one thing I could see being the reason why it's not blowing up is its forward speed. It's very hard for hurricanes traveling +15 mph to intensify explosively. I guarantee you that things likely would be very different if Julia were a lot slower.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Storm is slowing down. Track could shift north. It will be landfalling at an angle. This prolongs intense winds and expands areas of impacts. RI has begun.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Appears to have been a wobble. I fear this storm may start explosively intensifying. Fortunately i doubt it has enough time to ramp up enough to break into Cat 3 territory. We shall see.

[InfernoFlameCat]

If this pinholes, then there will be the possibility of explosive intensification. It could not have a better environment.

[cheezyWXguy]

Next 2 recon planes picked a good time to get into the storm. First time I’m seeing anticyclonic outflow coming off the cdo on the ne side. Convective structure looks a lot more like a strengthening system than it did this morning. Recon could very well find sub 990mb pressures and winds approaching cat1

[South Texas Storms]

Landfall will likely occur in about 12 hours. I would be surprised if it got above 75 kt winds prior to landfall. Flooding should be the biggest threat from this storm.

[Michele B]

There seems to be some convection firing on the northern side now.
One more thing...if this makes it to the Pacific still a storm and retains its name, have there ever been 2 storms in one season to do so?

I remember that happening once before - but Pacific to Atlantic (well, GoM). I think they change the name to the next name in the list for that ocean.

[Sciencerocks]

[bahamaswx]

Thankfully Julia doesn't have more time. Looks like she could've been a monster.

[cheezyWXguy]

Thankfully Julia doesn't have more time. Looks like she could've been a monster.

Very much agree. If it hasn’t already started RI, it likely will very soon. Fortunately there’s just not that much time for it to do so.

[Iceresistance]

Recon has found Hurricane Force FL winds, SMFR at 55 knots

Pressure is at 997.7 and not even at the center yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

66kt FL, 58kt SFMR in the E quad. May have a hurricane now, since the strongest winds should be found in the NE quad

[ChrisH-UK]

Radar from the sky aka GOES-17 Optical Depth, as you can see in the 2 hour loop Julia is starting to form a eye.

Source - https://col.st/KsIw6

[cheezyWXguy]

Extrap down to 991.5 with 55kt FL winds, probably going to find central pressure in the mid 980s. This is probably a hurricane now. That said, the windfield isn’t very uniform and pretty spread out. Wouldn’t expect Julia to explode before landfall unless it rapidly improves