EPAC: JULIA - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[mpic]

Any word from Guatemala yet or is it too soon?

[Category5Kaiju]

Julia: "Wow, I'm in the EPAC now"

Bonnie: "First time, eh?"

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

As rare as these crossovers are, it's wild that we've had two of them in the same year.

[GCANE]

Seems to really like the EPAC

[GCANE]

Pretty much on track from last week's discussion on how Julia will open up to a large 700mb wave and possibly spin up in the BoC


000
ABNT20 KNHC 101145
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 10 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwest Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located to the north of Tropical Storm
Julia is forecast to move westward toward the far southwest Gulf of
Mexico during the next day or two. Some slight development of this
system is possible by mid-week if the disturbance remains over
water. Regardless of development, heavy rain is expected over
portions of southern Mexico, Belize, and Guatemala during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[Sciencerocks]

[Vince_and_Grace_fan]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/7158/3zFQnq.gif

I wouldn't be surprised if the center reforms somewhere under that large convective blob. Low level cloud motion definitely shows a circulation around it.

[GCANE]

Massive and very strong 700mb vort is showing up on CIMSS.
Tip is on the southern end of the Yucatan and appears to be headed to the BoC.
Later, surface winds should converge along the shore and could form as surface low.
UL conditions look favorable with a very large anticyclone overhead.

[GCANE]

High helicity MCS now firing over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec

[GCANE]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 10 OCTOBER 2022
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2022
TCPOD NUMBER.....22-137 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT 0NE- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 11/1900Z A. 12/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. AFXXX 0214A CYCLONE
C. 11/1615Z C. 12/0845Z
D. 19.5N 95.5W D. 20.7N 96.4W
E. 11/1900Z TO 11/2330Z E. 12/1100Z TO 12/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. INVEST G. FIX

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1579609040153620490

[GCANE]

Massive ARWB is over the whole GoM and West Carib.
BoC is nearly in the middle of it

[GCANE]

Qualitatively, looks like a massive amount of high CAPE air is converging into the south end of the BoC.
Coming from the southern half of the GoM.
Can't give any hard numbers at this point in the BoC.
I see a 4000 CAPE ridge in the straits of FL where this seems to be its source.

Very high CAPE is off the Belize coast and is also converging to the IoT.
Explains the strong MCS's now firing.

[GCANE]

Looks like the ARWB will improve over the next few days.
Any surface low will likely remain in the BoC during this time.

[GCANE]

A large ULL will anchor over Lake Superior in the next couple days.
If this moves out faster than currently forecast, the surface low in the BoC could break loose.

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

Massive and very strong 700mb vort is showing up on CIMSS.
Tip is on the southern end of the Yucatan and appears to be headed to the BoC.
Later, surface winds should converge along the shore and could form as surface low.
UL conditions look favorable with a very large anticyclone overhead.

So some energy is going to make it into the gulf.

[cycloneye]

There have been reports of fatalities in El Salvador Honduras and Venezuela related to Julia. A mudslide killed more than 20 in Las Tejerias, Venezuela.

 https://twitter.com/teleSURtv/status/1579516069253091328