WPAC: SONCA - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

90W INVEST 221011 1200 13.5N 118.6E WPAC 15 1006

[underthwx]

90W INVEST 221011 1200 13.5N 118.6E WPAC 15 1006

https://i.imgur.com/Ho7FHrJ.jpg

What's up Hayabusa?....got any thoughts you can share on 90W?....have a great night my friend...

[Hayabusa]

90W INVEST 221011 1200 13.5N 118.6E WPAC 15 1006

https://i.imgur.com/Ho7FHrJ.jpg

What's up Hayabusa?....got any thoughts you can share on 90W?....have a great night my friend...

Models have 98W losing its tracker over Luzon and jumps it over to 90W. A Vietnam threat later on. Thanks. Have a great day too

[underthwx]

90W INVEST 221011 1200 13.5N 118.6E WPAC 15 1006

https://i.imgur.com/Ho7FHrJ.jpg

What's up Hayabusa?....got any thoughts you can share on 90W?....have a great night my friend...

Models have 98W losing its tracker over Luzon and jumps it over to 90W. A Vietnam threat later on. Thanks. Have a great day too

Will do!.....It seems as though it's going to be a rainy time for my people in the Philippines, after NORU, I'm hoping nothing of that type of cyclone will occur there, or ANYWHERE, again this season, I was a nervous wreck during NORU for sure!

[Hayabusa]

JMA started issuing it since 00Z

TD a
Issued at 2022/10/13 07:10 UTC
Analysis at 10/13 06 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N12°55′ (12.9°)
E113°50′ (113.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 10/14 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°20′ (14.3°)
E110°55′ (110.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 10/15 06 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40′ (14.7°)
E108°55′ (108.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 10/16 06 UTC
Grade TD
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50′ (14.8°)
E107°35′ (107.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 1006 hPa
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)

[ElectricStorm]

This is 22W now. First JTWC forecast, won't be around for long

[Subtrop]

WTPQ50 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2219 SONCA (2219) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 14.2N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 240NM NORTHWEST 120NM SOUTHEAST
FORECAST
12HF 141800UTC 15.2N 109.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 150600UTC 15.5N 108.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 160600UTC 15.8N 106.4E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

[Iceresistance]

JTWC has issued the final warning on Sonca as it made landfall over Vietnam as a 35 knot (40 mph) weak TS

[doomhaMwx]

Understandably, Sonca did not get much attention because it was a poorly-organized minimal TS. But despite being weak, it actually dumped tremendous amounts of rain in Central Vietnam. According to NCHMF, Bach Ma near Hue City had a 24-hr total of 961mm with some nearby locations also recording >700mm! Vietnam typically sees above-average rainfall during La Niña years.




If this list from Wikipedia is correct, then Sonca would probably land in the top 5-6 spot of the wettest tropical cyclones recorded in Vietnam.