ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Max fl 46kt. Although I am not sure why recon is flying at 650mb.

They are still decending.

[wxman57]

I'm becoming more confident that if the recon plane identifies any circulation at all that it will be upgraded to Karl. I have it tracking inland near Veracruz by late Thursday. It'll drift slowly N-NNW for 24 hours then be forced SW into Mexico. Already have my advisory typed.

[GCANE]

Nice spin quickly developing on the CDO

[GCANE]

IR has been warming up lately. Now seeing a few towers fire thru.
I hope this is not a sign of a very large warm core.

[wxman57]

I have the advisory starting point near 20N/95W, a degree west of where the plane is. With NHC at 80%, they'll be starting advisories one way or the other by 4pm CDT. They probably don't want to start them with another PTC, so they'll call it Karl. So begins my 10-day early shift rotation. This will be gone by Thursday night, but I still have 9 more days to go.

[Coolcruiseman]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

we can add it to the ever growing list..

they have not fully descended. but they will likely find a TS pretty easily.

ASCAT is plenty for an upgrade already.

From my 100% amateur observation view what this shows is that even with all the technological advances you can never fully predict what Mother Nature is going to do with disturbance areas.

[underthwx]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

we can add it to the ever growing list..

they have not fully descended. but they will likely find a TS pretty easily.

ASCAT is plenty for an upgrade already.

From my 100% amateur observation view what this shows is that even with all the technological advances you can never fully predict what Mother Nature is going to do with disturbance areas.

True that....it ain't nice to fool Mother Nature...

[tropicwatch]

SFMR 43 knts.
The great model fail has begun.

we can add it to the ever growing list..

they have not fully descended. but they will likely find a TS pretty easily.

ASCAT is plenty for an upgrade already.

From my 100% amateur observation view what this shows is that even with all the technological advances you can never fully predict what Mother Nature is going to do with disturbance areas.

Sometimes you just have to look out the window.

[ElectricStorm]

Definitely TS force winds, now the question is if they can find an LLC or not. If so, I'd expect TS Karl at the next advisory

[cycloneye]

If they find a closed circulation, it will be TS Karl.

AL, 93, 2022101118, , BEST, 0, 194N, 942W, 35, 1008, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat

[zzzh]

Trough.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/XTSVbnA.jpg
Trough.

No

[wxman57]

If they find a closed circulation, it will be TS Karl.

AL, 93, 2022101118, , BEST, 0, 194N, 942W, 35, 1008, DB

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal932022.dat

I think they'll call it Karl whether or not it has a well-defined LLC. It's too close to land. They need the public in Mexico alerted.

[GCANE]

Drop measures air from 650mb totally saturated.

[Iceresistance]

https://i.imgur.com/XTSVbnA.jpg
Trough.

No

Looks more like a broad circulation, a trough is an even more ill-defined circulation.

[zzzh]

https://i.imgur.com/XTSVbnA.jpg
Trough.

No

Looks more like a broad circulation, a trough is an even more ill-defined circulation.

?

[underthwx]

No

Looks more like a broad circulation, a trough is an even more ill-defined circulation.

?

At the moment, according to the National Hurricane Center, it's Invest 93L, until they deem otherwise....

[Zonacane]

No

Looks more like a broad circulation, a trough is an even more ill-defined circulation.

?

That is not the circulation of a trough

[GCANE]

Convection coming off the coast of the IoT.
Moving NE.
Prety sure we have Karl.

[tropicwatch]

HH is less than 100 miles from the coast. They have to find it sometime.