ATL: KARL - Post Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like shear letting up.
It appears its getting under the new ARWB I mentioned earlier today.
This confirms the shift in track.

[GCANE]

The trough in the PV streamers, well north of Karl, has moved significantly east confirming it is now under the new ARWB

[GCANE]

I like this one

 https://twitter.com/twilly18/status/1580727591228825601

[GCANE]

Looks like Karl maybe stalling out

[tropicwatch]

From a ship close to the center about 7 central.

[GCANE]

Pretty significant change in direction of the convection on the top portion of this radar

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/GUI/vi ... 50_gif.php

[GCANE]

From a ship close to the center about 7 central.

https://tropicwatch.info/2022-10-13%2020-29-03-89.png

The rapidly falling pressure is another indication of Karl coming under the influence of the new ARWB

[GCANE]

More and more of the convection on radar moving north now

[GCANE]

RAP also showing the peak of the trough is directly south of the MS Delta

[GCANE]

New fix is going to come in 8 miles SW of the previous fix
Also confirms being steered by the new ARWB.
Southern progression may significantly slow down.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Shear on the increase. Old ARWB is taken a dip south accounting for Karl's move back to the SW and the increase in shear.

[Emmett_Brown]

Karl hanging on. Recon finding 999mb pressure, and the center is still under the convection.

[aspen]

Karl hanging on. Recon finding 999mb pressure, and the center is still under the convection.

It’s interesting how, despite its battle with shear and decreasing winds, Karl’s pressure has remained constant around 1000 (+/-1) mbar for nearly two days straight. It also always reforms its center under a new convective burst when shear rips off the old one. Quite a persistent storm that none of the models saw coming.

[Sciencerocks]

[cheezyWXguy]

Running out of steam now, convection warming and pressure up 4mb from the last pass

[wxman57]

Yeah, Karl is barely holding on to its TS status. Will be inland within 24 hours, likely making landfall with winds under TS strength. No wind issue for Mexico, just rain.

[MetroMike]

Pressures have increased since last night as per the 10am adv. People said this would be gone yesterday. Don't count this out yet.

[MetroMike]

Pressures have decreased since last night as per the 10am adv. People said this would be gone yesterday. Don't count this out yet.

[wxman57]

Karl is fading fast. Pressure is rising, winds are dropping, and convection is moving well SE of the nearly exposed center. Hard to argue that Karl is still a TS this afternoon. Bye Karl. Just some rain for Mexico today/tomorrow.