Texas Fall 2022

[cheezyWXguy]

That is a massive front at day 10-11 on the 12z gfs. Not much rain shown, but after the temps this summer my fingers are crossed lol

[rwfromkansas]

https://youtu.be/p04H8M7lRbM

Not sure how accurate but Roy Ponder has some hope (winter forecast).

[Ntxw]

If you are wondering about winter, there is a lean towards some really cold spells especially early to mid winter in extended (post 2nd year) cold -ENSO. 1917-1918,1985-1986, 2000-2001, and 2013-2014 for some example especially if it is a Nina fade and Nino the next year. Many of these favored December and January cold snaps. November tends to be cold as well.

The one thing about being dry and not wet is that arid air masses tends to allow cold to persist when it does come. Moist air is warm air that moderates.

[Iceresistance]

NWS forecast now down to 33°F for my area.

[Ralph's Weather]

I would expect a pretty widespread frost with isolated freeze Wed morning for North and East Texas.
Looks like the northern NM mountains especially north central NM will see 6 to 12 inches of snow with a few inches at resort base levels and maybe light snow in the northern valleys.

[Iceresistance]

Currently 88°F outside, now I really can't wait for the 50s next week!

[Iceresistance]

There is a storm near Jacksboro, TX, moving NNE towards Bowie, TX

[Brent]

Currently 88°F outside, now I really can't wait for the 50s next week!

NWS has me down to 29 now it's gonna be something after today

[Iceresistance]

Currently 88°F outside, now I really can't wait for the 50s next week!

NWS has me down to 29 now

The KFOR forecast jumpscared me for a bit, but I'm strongly convinced that it's an old forecast!

[Brent]

Currently 88°F outside, now I really can't wait for the 50s next week!

NWS has me down to 29 now

The KFOR forecast jumpscared me for a bit, but I'm strongly convinced that it's an old forecast!

It's been trending colder for sure here. At first they thought the metro would avoid a freeze but yeah I'm in the middle of it with 29 now

[Iceresistance]

The front has stalled around 20-40 miles north of I-40, it's about to light up tonight.

[dpep4]

Dang, a high of just 62 Tue. I may have to hibernate until Thursday.

[Iceresistance]

The Decatur, TX Supercell is getting mean.

The first storm of Central Oklahoma is NW of Piedmont, OK

[cheezyWXguy]

That supercell near Chico looks to be getting rooted to the surface, judging by the recent right movement. Could manage to clip Decatur

[bubba hotep]

Should be the start of an active couple of days with multiple rain chances.

[Iceresistance]

Mesoscale Discussion for Oklahoma has me under a 60% chance for a T-Storm Watch

[Iceresistance]

The storm that blew up near Piedmont is a goner.

[Iceresistance]

This is weird, the storms failed to go up in Central Oklahoma, the cap must've been too strong.

[bubba hotep]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
730 PM CDT Sat Oct 15 2022

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Western and central Oklahoma

* Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 730 PM
until 200 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
through the remainder of this evening and move southeast with a risk
for large hail and damaging gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west of
Clinton OK to 85 miles east southeast of Oklahoma City OK. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 550...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
29025.

...Bunting

[bubba hotep]

This is weird, the storms failed to go up in Central Oklahoma, the cap must've been too strong.

There was a weak impulse in the flow that set off this first rd of storms. The 12z 3k NAM was very aggressive with this. However, better forcing will overspread the area later and we should see the radar light up then.