2022 WPAC Season

[mrbagyo]

Im seeing tc genesis signal in the second week of October.
look like the Philippines would be in play again.

[Hayabusa]

Im seeing tc genesis signal in the second week of October.
look like the Philippines would be in play again.

ECMWF 00Z has a west tracker after 1st week. Looks like the CFS forecast is coming to fruition

[Hayabusa]

EPS 12Z. If the op/ensembles are right, the seed for the next storm is already there near 150E.

[Kingarabian]

With the way things are trending and assuming they do not change, I'm expecting either a strong super Typhoon, or multiple minimal major-strength-esque Typhoons to close out the year by November/December. Simply a lot of anomalous rising motion on the way.

[ElectricStorm]

The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...

[mrbagyo]

The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...

Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it.

[underthwx]

The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...

Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?

[mrbagyo]

The last few GFS runs have been showing the potential for a powerful typhoon forming behind 23W. Assuming 21W doesn't get named, 23W will be Nesat which means yet another H name could become a big one...

Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?

yeah, Late October - November systems frequently deliver nasty impact to the Philippines.

[underthwx]

Im more interested with the one that will follow the H system since it will come at a lower latitude. It might be the first low rider of the season.

GFS is starting to trend more west and south on the latest run
CMC and Euro are also hinting at it. https://s1.gifyu.com/images/track.gfso.2022101512.tc_wpac_ll.4cyc.png

Are these potential issues for the Philippines?

yeah, Late October - November systems frequently deliver nasty impact to the Philippines.

True that, I always worry for my family there, whenever a cyclone threatens the area

[mrbagyo]

GFS is shifting back en forth between straight runner (00z and 12z run) and recurve scenario (happy hour runs)



Euro has a low in the same time frame

Canadian has a strengthening TC south of 15N

[mrbagyo]

GFS now leaning more on a west tracking storm for 3 consecutive runs.

Canadian is also showing a typhoon in the Philippine sea in 10 days.

Euro is not yet enthused with only a weak low as usual

[doomhaMwx]

Oct-Nov might be shaping up to be a repeat of 2020 when we had a train of TCs consecutively hitting the Philippines and Vietnam at this time of the year.

[mrbagyo]

00z back to recurve again lol

[dexterlabio]

00z back to recurve again lol

The latest ensembles are still split into the westward and recurve groups but it appears there are more west members in the latest run. Euro ensembles are also favoring a more westward scenario, although the operational run still shows nothing.

[Hayabusa]

Latest Euro showing tropical development over the Philippine Sea next week.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS back to showing a powerful typhoon impacting the Philippines behind 25W/soon-to-be-Nalgae. It's been all over the place though on the last several runs, but it's certainly something to watch. It's definitely primetime for a big one in that area.

[mrbagyo]

Just needs to get tagged, it's looking quite healthy already

[Hayabusa]

Plots finally updating after ecmwf migrated to a new data center, latest run 12z


It should be an invest soon

[mrbagyo]

Looks good to go.

[mrbagyo]

The area of convection near Truk atoll might need some monitoring also as it's starting to manifest on most guidance.
It should struggle in the short term due to shear induced by the outflow from 93W