2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

06z GFS showing a MH in the long range, have to wait to see if it's a model cane only.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://i.imgur.com/eUdxPrZ.gif
06z GFS showing a MH in the long range, have to wait to see if it's a model cane only.

GEPS has some support for it as well; while it starts its genesis in the WCAR as other modelcanes have done in the past, it's interesting to note that this system takes a path that is very typical for late October, and at least the time of the year makes its genesis somewhat less ludicrous.

[salescall]

Should I be nervous about the long range GFS? I've got a trip planned to the Exumas 10/15 - 10/22. Was hoping we would get lucky...

[Category5Kaiju]

Should I be nervous about the long range GFS? I've got a trip planned to the Exumas 10/15 - 10/22. Was hoping we would get lucky...

Absolutely not. That hurricane and its precise path could change over time, and there's no guarantee it will even form. It's way too early to worry about specifics, and as we have seen with models this year, they simply have not really done well with long-range forecasts compared to some of the more recent seasons for some reason.

[salescall]

Should I be nervous about the long range GFS? I've got a trip planned to the Exumas 10/15 - 10/22. Was hoping we would get lucky...

Absolutely not. That hurricane and its precise path could change over time, and there's no guarantee it will even form. It's way too early to worry about specifics, and as we have seen with models this year, they simply have not really done well with long-range forecasts compared to some of the more recent seasons for some reason.

Thanks! That was my thought as well, but something I will be keeping an eye on.

[chris_fit]

Looks like GFS spins it off from a talk of a cold front - which is somewhat common this time of year.... It is still 10+ days out so... meh.

[SFLcane]

https://i.imgur.com/eUdxPrZ.gif
06z GFS showing a MH in the long range, have to wait to see if it's a model cane only.

GEPS has some support for it as well; while it starts its genesis in the WCAR as other modelcanes have done in the past, it's interesting to note that this system takes a path that is very typical for late October, and at least the time of the year makes its genesis somewhat less ludicrous.

Yeah worth watching for sure.

[LarryWx]

Looks like GFS spins it off from a talk of a cold front - which is somewhat common this time of year.... It is still 10+ days out so... meh.

https://i.imgur.com/77AwG5e.gif

This highly unlikely scenario being that it is the GFS in the long range is somewhat of an offshoot from Julia based on following vorticity at 700 mb and 850 mb.

Though this Julia offshoot scenario is highly unlikely, another TC forming in the Caribbean as we head toward that timeframe wouldn't at all be surprising in La Niña.

[Hurricane Mike]

I can't tell if that long range system on the 06Z GFS is Julia or a new system.

[mantis83]

I can't tell if that long range system on the 06Z GFS is Julia or a new system.

12z gfs lost the storm, so no worries

[LarryWx]

I can't tell if that long range system on the 06Z GFS is Julia or a new system.

It looked to me on the 6Z GFS like neither but rather something in between, a combination of vorticity from Julia and non-Julia Gulf vorticity.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS… Fantasy range has hints of a Yankee type hurricane.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS has TS mess moving over Florida in fantasy range..

[kevin]

Not a tropical system, but so rare as far as I know that I wanted to mention it somewhere. A system near Antarctica currently has a pressure around 928 - 934 mb according to the models and it will drop to extremely low values tomorrow. Here's what the models currently show:

Euro (896 mb)


GFS (903 mb)


ICON (903 mb)


Does this count as an extratropical cyclone or is this something else? Because as far as I know the strongest extratropical storm ever recorded was the Braer Storm with 914 mb. So this would easily beat that record. Even if it isn't a cyclone, ~900 mb has to be one of the lowest non-hurricane/tornado related pressures right? A shame there probably aren't many measurement stations (if any at all) to measure how deep this system is.

[LarryWx]

I wonder if this on the 12Z Euro 150 could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this weekend. It has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members.  I wonder if the 12Z Euro storm just off the SE US for the upcoming weekend could be a subtropical storm as it formed earlier near the mid 80s F Gulf Stream before moving NW and has highest winds near 40 knots. Keep in mind that earlier Euro runs going all of the way back 72 hours to the 12Z 10/13 run have been showing something similar forming off of the SE US coast toward this upcoming weekend. This idea has some support from the 12Z ICON and JMA as well as from ~20% of the 12Z EPS members. It is also implied on the 18Z ICON as the hour 120 is similar to the 12Z 126.

12Z Euro:



Edit: I forgot to mention that the 12Z UKMET also has something form early this upcoming weekend in the Bahamas that isn't classified as tropical and thus is probably ST.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a non-tropical low dropping down and becoming a TS before bombing into a major hurricane. Probably not going to happen but I would love an OTS major that doesn't hit anything

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS is making a lot of noise in the WC Caribbean 10/26+. During that period, the 0Z GFS has a surface low in that area. 11 of the last 13 and every one of the last nine La Niña seasons had significant western basin land impacts from a late OCT or Nov system. Just a suggestion to not bet on no more significant land impact this season just yet. We're in a different era now.

[Category5Kaiju]

The 0Z GEFS is making a lot of noise in the WC Caribbean 10/26+. During that period, the 0Z GFS has a surface low in that area. 11 of the last 13 and every one of the last nine La Niña seasons had significant western basin land impacts from a late OCT or Nov system. Just a suggestion to not bet on no more significant land impact this season just yet. We're in a different era now.

It has been somewhat consistent too

[ChrisH-UK]

The GFS has a storm in the gulf again surprisingly it comes from the East Pacific. A storm forms up in a couple of days then crosses Mexico into the gulf, it's remnants then spin up and hits Florida.

[tropicwatch]

https://imgur.com/ctor0Sj

The GFS has a storm in the gulf again surprisingly it comes from the East Pacific. A storm forms up in a couple of days then crosses Mexico into the gulf, it's remnants then spin up and hits Florida.

https://imgur.com/vdy8AUF

Might be possible.