WPAC: 25W - Post Tropical

[Hayabusa]

92W INVEST 221017 0000 16.0N 132.0E WPAC 15 1010

[Hayabusa]

Gefs 18Z

Euro 18Z

[ElectricStorm]

This one could get interesting, has a good chance to become the next typhoon. Could be a fairly strong one, although the GFS is less aggressive than it was a few days ago.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z most members want a landfall

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZOCT2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZOCT2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180152ZOCT2022//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 18OCT22 0000Z, TYPHOON 23W (NESAT) WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N
113.7E, APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTH OF HONG KONG, AND HAD TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80 KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF
A (WTPN33 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) AT 18OCT22 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W (TWENTYFOUR) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 158.2E, APPROXIMATELY 347 NM NORTHEAST OF MINAMI
TORI SHIMA, JAPAN, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN31 PGTW
180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2N 132.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 132.5E, APPROXIMATELY 625 NM
EAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT WITH A BROAD
DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH MULTIPLE MESOVORTICES
ROTATING CYCLONICALLY ABOUT A CENTROID. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
DEFINED BY STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (28C-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 ‎RJTD ‎180600
WARNING ‎AND ‎SUMMARY ‎180600.
WARNING ‎VALID ‎190600.
WARNING ‎IS ‎UPDATED ‎EVERY ‎6 ‎HOURS.
TROPICAL ‎DEPRESSION ‎1006 ‎HPA ‎AT ‎19N ‎132E ‎NNW ‎SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like much will come of this system. Might become a weak TS before reaching northern Luzon Friday, but it should dissipate in the South China Sea.

[ManilaTC]

JTWC designates as 25W

Code: Select all

WTPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/191421OCT2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 20.8N 130.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 130.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 20.6N 128.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 20.4N 126.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 20.3N 123.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 20.3N 121.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 20.2N 118.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 18.6N 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 16.9N 113.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 129.8E.
19OCT22. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (TWENTYFIVE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 369 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 23W (NESAT) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 191430).//
NNNN

[wxman57]

First ASCAT hit in 3 days confirms this is not a depression. Just a trof axis. No circulation. It's weaker than it was 3 days ago.