WPAC: HAITANG - Post Tropical

[Hayabusa]

91W INVEST 221014 0000 19.5N 152.8E WPAC 15 0

[wxman57]

JMA issued a final advisory on the depression. It's merging with a cold front.

[Hayabusa]

TCFA cancelled

WTPN21 PGTW 161930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151921Z OCT 22//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 151930) THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 153.4E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 156.7E, APPROXIMATELY 995 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND
MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 161537Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD ELONGATED
CIRCULATION IN WHICH THE CONVECTION IS BEING SHEARED AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VWS, OFFSET BY
COOLER (26-25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT
THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOSING JET SUPPORT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

TCFA again

WTPN21 PGTW 171330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 91W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 27.3N 157.8E TO 33.5N 162.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 27.6N 157.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
27.1N 156.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 157.8E, APPROXIMATELY 700 NM
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND. RECENT PHASE CLASSIFICATION WORKSHEETS INDICATE
THE SYSTEM HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL SYSTEM AND THUS
IS NO LONGER CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT HAS BECOME ALIGNED WITH STRONG CONVECTION THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST. A 171106Z ASCAT METOP-B BULLSEYE CONFIRMS THE
TROPICAL CONVERSION WITH A SYMMETRICAL LLCC, BUT THE WIND FIELD REMAINS
LOPSIDED, WITH LIGHT WINDS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM, AND
EMBEDDED AREAS OF 25-30 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY, UNDER THE
FLARING CONVECTION, WHICH ARE NOT CONSIDERED TO BE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE
OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS DUE TO A DECREASE IN VWS (DOWN TO 5-10 KNOTS),
AN INCREASE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW, BUT NOT MUCH A CHANGE IN THE SSTS
DEPARTMENT (27-28C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W HAS A BRIEF
WINDOW OF 6-12 HOURS TO INTENSIFY BEFORE TROUGHING OUT AND GETTING PICKED
UP BY AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE TROUGH AND TRANSITIONING ONCE AGAIN TO A
SUBTROPICAL THEN EXTRATROPICAL LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS.MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
181330Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

24W TWENTYFOUR 221018 0000 28.6N 158.2E WPAC 30 1004

Midget system. Latest ASCAT pass shows that it's now a TS.

[mrbagyo]

24W TWENTYFOUR 221018 0000 28.6N 158.2E WPAC 30 1004

[ElectricStorm]

First JTWC warning is up. Has it becoming a TS

[Meow]

Now TS Haitang, technically transitioned from a gale-force extratropical low.

T2221 ( HAITANG )
Issued on 2022/10/18 16:15

<Analysis at 15 JST, 2022/10/18>
Intensity/Category Tropical Storm
Center Position 29.8N 158.6E
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h (10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18m/s (35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s (50kt)
≥ 30-kt wind area SE 280km (150NM) NW 165km (90NM)
<Forecast for 03 JST, 2022/10/19>
Intensity/Category Tropical Storm
Center Position 32.3N 159.9E
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h (14kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18m/s (35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s (50kt)
Radius of probability circle 65km (35NM)
<Forecast for 15 JST, 2022/10/19>
Intensity/Category Extratropical Low
Center Position 35.3N 163.6E
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h (21kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 95km (50NM)

[Hayabusa]

Now TS Haitang, technically transitioned from a gale-force extratropical low.

T2221 ( HAITANG )
Issued on 2022/10/18 16:15
https://i.imgur.com/VWJnCiW.png
<Analysis at 15 JST, 2022/10/18>
Intensity/Category Tropical Storm
Center Position 29.8N 158.6E
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h (10kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18m/s (35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s (50kt)
≥ 30-kt wind area SE 280km (150NM) NW 165km (90NM)
<Forecast for 03 JST, 2022/10/19>
Intensity/Category Tropical Storm
Center Position 32.3N 159.9E
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25km/h (14kt)
Central pressure 1002hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18m/s (35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s (50kt)
Radius of probability circle 65km (35NM)
<Forecast for 15 JST, 2022/10/19>
Intensity/Category Extratropical Low
Center Position 35.3N 163.6E
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h (21kt)
Central pressure 1006hPa
Radius of probability circle 95km (50NM)

H name that rhymes with Hai is ruined, well 92W was going to ruin it anyway if it gets named.