Is this just a very slow start to the season, or is the season actually going to significantly underperform?

[InfernoFlameCat]

I believe we have confirmed this to just be a slow start. We could be looking at 3+ majors when this season is over. What a slow start though.

[Iceresistance]

I believe we have confirmed this to just be a slow start. We could be looking at 3+ majors when this season is over. What a slow start though.

This slow start has allowed a really backloaded quality vs quantity season.

[Category5Kaiju]

You know what I personally find astonishing? Every season since 2015 has featured a 155 mph storm or stronger.

[ConvergenceZone]

So glad to see this hurricane season shutting down early this year.... Ian was enough!

[tolakram]

So glad to see this hurricane season shutting down early this year.... Ian was enough!

Uh huh. I'll wait until December to call it over.

[Category5Kaiju]

So glad to see this hurricane season shutting down early this year.... Ian was enough!

Uh huh. I'll wait until December to call it over.

Yes sir, indeed....1932, 1961, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2008, and 2020 are perfect examples of why it's not over until it's over, especially if it's a cool neutral or La Nina year

[wxman57]

It's over for the U.S. Very strong shear dominates the Gulf and East Coast. Can't rule out a SW Caribbean storm that tracks into Central America, or a weak storm out over the open Atlantic, but that's about it.

[LarryWx]

So glad to see this hurricane season shutting down early this year.... Ian was enough!

Uh huh. I'll wait until December to call it over.

Yes sir, indeed....1932, 1961, 1998, 1999, 2001, 2008, and 2020 are perfect examples of why it's not over until it's over, especially if it's a cool neutral or La Nina year

Also, 1964, 1971, 1984, 1985, 1988, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2016, 2017, 2021.....2/3 of Niña seasons since 1964 had significant land impacts late Oct or Nov.

Regarding 3rd year cold ENSO, alone: 1874, 1894, 1985 though 1910, 1917, 1956, 1975, and 2000 did not.

[ConvergenceZone]

It's over for the U.S. Very strong shear dominates the Gulf and East Coast. Can't rule out a SW Caribbean storm that tracks into Central America, or a weak storm out over the open Atlantic, but that's about it.

I 100% agree, that would be all you would get. Just a renegade weak storm.........Not sure why some think that just because the season officially runs until December that we will see Hurricanes until December. Yes that sometimes has happened to a degree, but I've seen the season shut off many many times early And usually when it shuts off early everything just suddenly dries up like it's doing now... and feel free to send me a big plate of Crow if I'm wrong , as I will own up to it, allowing for the random weak storm of course that I mentioned

[skyline385]

It's over for the U.S. Very strong shear dominates the Gulf and East Coast. Can't rule out a SW Caribbean storm that tracks into Central America, or a weak storm out over the open Atlantic, but that's about it.

I 100% agree, that would be all you would get. Just a renegade weak storm.........Not sure why some think that just because the season officially runs until December that we will see Hurricanes until December. Yes that sometimes has happened to a degree, but I've seen the season shut off many many times early And usually when it shuts off early everything just suddenly dries up like it's doing now... and feel free to send me a big plate of Crow if I'm wrong , as I will own up to it, allowing for the random weak storm of course that I mentioned

Also something to note, the month of November only accounts for 5.5% of seasonal ACE even when using the very active 1991-2020 climo.

[tolakram]

It's over for the U.S. Very strong shear dominates the Gulf and East Coast. Can't rule out a SW Caribbean storm that tracks into Central America, or a weak storm out over the open Atlantic, but that's about it.

I 100% agree, that would be all you would get. Just a renegade weak storm.........Not sure why some think that just because the season officially runs until December that we will see Hurricanes until December. Yes that sometimes has happened to a degree, but I've seen the season shut off many many times early And usually when it shuts off early everything just suddenly dries up like it's doing now... and feel free to send me a big plate of Crow if I'm wrong , as I will own up to it, allowing for the random weak storm of course that I mentioned

Also something to note, the month of November only accounts for 5.5% of seasonal ACE even when using the very active 1991-2020 climo.

But it's just a guess, and I don't like guesses because one can't be 'right', even though I think there are some who think they will be.

[skyline385]

I 100% agree, that would be all you would get. Just a renegade weak storm.........Not sure why some think that just because the season officially runs until December that we will see Hurricanes until December. Yes that sometimes has happened to a degree, but I've seen the season shut off many many times early And usually when it shuts off early everything just suddenly dries up like it's doing now... and feel free to send me a big plate of Crow if I'm wrong , as I will own up to it, allowing for the random weak storm of course that I mentioned

Also something to note, the month of November only accounts for 5.5% of seasonal ACE even when using the very active 1991-2020 climo.

But it's just a guess, and I don't like guesses because one can't be 'right', even though I think there are some who think they will be.

Actually those numbers are from CSU's real-time TC statistics page, you can see the average ACE for each day of the season on the plot.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

[tolakram]

Also something to note, the month of November only accounts for 5.5% of seasonal ACE even when using the very active 1991-2020 climo.

But it's just a guess, and I don't like guesses because one can't be 'right', even though I think there are some who think they will be.

Actually those numbers are from CSU's real-time TC statistics page, you can see the average ACE for each day of the season on the plot.

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

Something not happening because the odds say it won't happen is still a guess.

[Category5Kaiju]

You what I find particularly alarming? Pretty much under every year since 2016, you can watch a bunch of extensive news coverage videos on Youtube on at least one very destructive and powerful Atlantic hurricane. For example, there's a plethora of news videos you can watch about Ian, and the same goes for storms like 2021's Ida, 2020's Laura, 2019's Dorian, 2018's Michael...I can go on.

I think it's safe to say that we've entered a period of heightened land impacts in the Atlantic, and I genuinely wonder how long this kind of pattern will last.

[NorthieStangl]

Given it's late October and we haven't even reached the L name yet... so even if a late October/November monster forms, I would say that it'll end up being an average season.

But it'll be remembered as an unusually destructive, deadly "average" season. How many average season can you think of that produced FOUR very destructive and deadly storms? Fiona clobbered Puerto Rico and is Canada's costliest storm ever, Ian is Florida's costliest storm ever and the deadliest in nearly a century, Hermine killed 33 people in Spain's Canary Islands, and Julia had killed nearly a hundred people in multiple countries with about 50 people still missing. Not even 1985 was this costly or had as many fatalities.

So although it don't turn out to be a "hyperactive" season that everyone expected, there is no way that anyone in the future would say that the 2022 hurricane season underperformed. This season is definitely a "quality over quantity" season.

[LarryWx]

This season is definitely a "quality over quantity" season.

This isn't aimed just at your post because the term '"quality" is used quite often here and elsewhere to refer to the strength and/or impact of TCs. I don't like using the word "quality" in this context because it normally implies something desirable (striving for high quality) and the greatest amount of deaths, injuries, and destruction is almost always a result of these high "quality" storms..Ian for example.

[Iceresistance]

This season is definitely a "quality over quantity" season.

This isn't aimed just at your post because the term '"quality" is used quite often here and elsewhere to refer to the strength and/or impact of TCs. I don't like using the word "quality" in this context because it normally implies something desirable (striving for high quality) and the greatest amount of deaths, injuries, and destruction is almost always a result of these high "quality" storms..Ian for example.

I always thought quality equals more hurricanes with fewer storms, and quantity is a lot of named storms.

[LarryWx]

This season is definitely a "quality over quantity" season.

This isn't aimed just at your post because the term '"quality" is used quite often here and elsewhere to refer to the strength and/or impact of TCs. I don't like using the word "quality" in this context because it normally implies something desirable (striving for high quality) and the greatest amount of deaths, injuries, and destruction is almost always a result of these high "quality" storms..Ian for example.

I always thought quality equals more hurricanes with fewer storms, and quantity is a lot of named storms.

So, if there's a higher degree of "quality" in a season, there's typically a higher % of storms capable of producing more casualties and damage since hurricanes are more often than not more deadly due to higher surge and winds (in addition to rain). And if a high % of a season's Hs are MHs, that's considered a higher "quality" season than if, say, none of the Hs are MHs. A higher "quality" season with all other things being equal is typically deadlier. Like this year. That's what bothers me about using that word. Quality is usually desirable. But not in this case.

[Iceresistance]

This isn't aimed just at your post because the term '"quality" is used quite often here and elsewhere to refer to the strength and/or impact of TCs. I don't like using the word "quality" in this context because it normally implies something desirable (striving for high quality) and the greatest amount of deaths, injuries, and destruction is almost always a result of these high "quality" storms..Ian for example.

I always thought quality equals more hurricanes with fewer storms, and quantity is a lot of named storms.

So, if there's a higher degree of "quality" in a season, there's typically a higher % of storms capable of producing more casualties and damage since hurricanes are more often than not more deadly due to higher surge and winds (in addition to rain). And if a high % of a season's Hs are MHs, that's considered a higher "quality" season than if, say, none of the Hs are MHs. A higher "quality" season with all other things being equal is typically deadlier. Like this year. That's what bothers me about using that word. Quality is usually desirable. But not in this case.

(On the bolded): Correct, that is the intention of a quality vs quantity season, the one where there are more stronger hurricanes with fewer storms to compete with each other. I'm afraid to say that there is always going to be a high casualty event where the storm makes landfall no matter what type of season we're facing.

[al78]

You what I find particularly alarming? Pretty much under every year since 2016, you can watch a bunch of extensive news coverage videos on Youtube on at least one very destructive and powerful Atlantic hurricane. For example, there's a plethora of news videos you can watch about Ian, and the same goes for storms like 2021's Ida, 2020's Laura, 2019's Dorian, 2018's Michael...I can go on.

I think it's safe to say that we've entered a period of heightened land impacts in the Atlantic, and I genuinely wonder how long this kind of pattern will last.

Maybe this is a regression to the mean and the 11-year U.S. major hurricane drought from 2006 to 2015 inclusive was the anomaly.