WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

#1 Postby Hayabusa » Thu Oct 20, 2022 6:51 pm

93W INVEST 221021 0000 6.8N 143.6E WPAC 15 0
93W INVEST 221021 0000 6.8N 143.6E WPAC 15 1010

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Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Oct 31, 2022 9:48 am, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#2 Postby mrbagyo » Thu Oct 20, 2022 7:06 pm

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#3 Postby dexterlabio » Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:30 pm

Is this the seed for the GFS typhoon?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#4 Postby ElectricStorm » Thu Oct 20, 2022 11:16 pm

This might have potential to become a big one... Hopefully it's not too destructive
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#5 Postby dexterlabio » Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:13 am

While I believe that there's a possibility of this potential typhoon recurving safely out to sea, the recent GFS runs kinda look weird because they show the typhoon tracking directly towards a strengthening subtropical ridge.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#6 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 21, 2022 4:22 am

EPS 00Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#7 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 21, 2022 5:49 am

Latest GFS recurves, hard to believe unless this is an El Nino in October.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#8 Postby mrbagyo » Fri Oct 21, 2022 7:43 am

93W INVEST 221021 1200 9.0N 142.4E WPAC 15 1009
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#9 Postby Hayabusa » Fri Oct 21, 2022 8:30 am

EPS 06Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#10 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 22, 2022 3:33 am

EPS 00Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#11 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 22, 2022 6:10 am

Euro develops this only when it's over the South China Sea (sounds reasonable due to the current appearance of 93W)

I wont bet against the Philippine Sea though (especially during October)
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#12 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 22, 2022 3:44 pm

Eps 12z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#13 Postby mrbagyo » Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:50 pm

too broad of a circulation

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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#14 Postby Hayabusa » Sat Oct 22, 2022 8:19 pm

EPS 18Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#15 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:41 am

Latest Euro recurves too. Still hard to believe because this is a La Nina October
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#16 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 23, 2022 8:28 am

06Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#17 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 23, 2022 3:15 pm

12Z
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#18 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:17 pm

Latest two runs of the GFS has this becoming an intense typhoon again, but recurve.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#19 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:40 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Latest two runs of the GFS has this becoming an intense typhoon again, but recurve.

What's up Hayabusa. Is this recurve keeping the cyclone away from all land?
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W

#20 Postby Hayabusa » Sun Oct 23, 2022 5:52 pm

underthwx wrote:
Hayabusa wrote:Latest two runs of the GFS has this becoming an intense typhoon again, but recurve.

What's up Hayabusa. Is this recurve keeping the cyclone away from all land?

Yes but I'm skeptical such a recurve track happening in a La Nina October.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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