Texas Fall 2022

[weatherdude1108]

Just checked the PWAT values on the GFS and CMC, the PWAT is 1-2 inches for most of Texas, but there is not much lift for the training effect of the storms for the GFS despite a secondary system with the SoCal Trough that moves over Texas later on. The CMC is currently our only hope for a heavy rainfall event for Central and Southern Plains.

I think there will be plenty of lift, that 5h look Bubba posted is a great upper pattern. We just don't yet have that rich, deep moisture influx from the lower latitudes/levels.

Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! It literally sucked out the moisture and left us dry! The Gulf of Mexico is about as dry as it can get with a front that is refusing to leave the area.

The SOI index is now mocking us with a sub-positive reading of +1.61 on the daily SOI.

How long as it been since the daily SOI has been that low? I noticed the 30 day is going down ever so slightly, but the 90 day is still creeping up. Ugh.

[Brent]

The models actually trending wetter? What kind of alternative universe is this

[Ntxw]

I think there will be plenty of lift, that 5h look Bubba posted is a great upper pattern. We just don't yet have that rich, deep moisture influx from the lower latitudes/levels.

Stupid Cockroach Death Ridge! It literally sucked out the moisture and left us dry! The Gulf of Mexico is about as dry as it can get with a front that is refusing to leave the area.

The SOI index is now mocking us with a sub-positive reading of +1.61 on the daily SOI.

How long as it been since the daily SOI has been that low? I noticed the 30 day is going down ever so slightly, but the 90 day is still creeping up. Ugh.

Late August was the last negative reading. There is a little backing to the current fall from very high levels we might see some negative readings the coming days as trades weaken. If it does the fruits of this labor will arrive sometime in November due to the lag.

[Iceresistance]

The models actually trending wetter? What kind of alternative universe is this

When the counter on the dry air from the Cockroach Death Ridge is there when you needed it the most.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfimmNZVIAEGkvn?format=png&name=4096x4096

The photo failed to load, what is it?

[Cpv17]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FfimmNZVIAEGkvn?format=png&name=4096x4096

The photo failed to load, what is it?

Worked fine for me.

[Iceresistance]

Great, I'm under a Fire Weather Watch for this weekend.

[Brent]

Winter is coming

[Iceresistance]

The WPC now has a Slight Risk of heavy rainfall for Northern Texas and most of Central and Eastern Oklahoma

[Iceresistance]

The CFS model is currently suggesting an active November pattern for this area with cold shots.

[Brent]

It might actually rain

[cheezyWXguy]

12z nam looks like it would be enough for a slight risk of severe weather in ntx and e ok on Monday. Surface temps in the mid 70s is a little meager, but dews in the mid 60s and what looks to me like a decently favorable wind profile suggest to me that there could be some more potent storms along that front

[Cpv17]

Great, I'm under a Fire Weather Watch for this weekend.

Good chance for rain in OK in a few days. Much better chance there than most of Texas.

[Cpv17]

It might actually rain

https://i.ibb.co/2kptfM6/19-E-tracks-latest-2.png

Ehhh, it’s not really looking all that promising for my area. I’ll be happy if I can get half an inch.

[Iceresistance]

A huge uptick in rainfall potential early next week on the WPC!


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/p120i.gif

[bubba hotep]

The CFS model is currently suggesting an active November pattern for this area with cold shots.

Euro Weeklies look like about a 20% chance of winter weather in North Texas during the 2nd half of Nov. I can remember one year (forget which one) we had some snow on the ground during Thanksgiving week up here in Collin County.

[Brent]

The CFS model is currently suggesting an active November pattern for this area with cold shots.

Euro Weeklies look like about a 20% chance of winter weather in North Texas during the 2nd half of Nov. I can remember one year (forget which one) we had some snow on the ground during Thanksgiving week up here in Collin County.

1993 was the Thanksgiving game snow I think. Also in 2014 which was my first winter in the Plains it snowed in mid November... Then it didn't snow again til the end of February

[starsfan65]

The CFS model is currently suggesting an active November pattern for this area with cold shots.

Euro Weeklies look like about a 20% chance of winter weather in North Texas during the 2nd half of Nov. I can remember one year (forget which one) we had some snow on the ground during Thanksgiving week up here in Collin County.

1993 was the Thanksgiving game snow I think. Also in 2014 which was my first winter in the Plains it snowed in mid November... Then it didn't snow again til the end of February

It was sleet on the ground. It was the Cowboys-Dolphins game.

[gpsnowman]

The CFS model is currently suggesting an active November pattern for this area with cold shots.

Euro Weeklies look like about a 20% chance of winter weather in North Texas during the 2nd half of Nov. I can remember one year (forget which one) we had some snow on the ground during Thanksgiving week up here in Collin County.

Late November 2006 had some flurries around Thanksgiving. And when the Jets played the Cowboys one year on Thanksgiving some flurries were present. Not 1993 but maybe 2007 or 08. 93 was the Dolphins. Still bitter about that one.