EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[Iceresistance]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2022 Time : 125020 UTC
Lat : 17:46:48 N Lon : 106:18:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 951mb / 110kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.2 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : +0.5C Cloud Region Temp : -73.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[Iceresistance]

The amount of Lightning inside the eyewall of Roslyn has increased big time!

[Category5Kaiju]

Quite interesting that 3 of this year's EPAC major hurricanes (Darby, Orlene, and now Roslyn) were quite small and blew up into majors completely contrary to initial predictions.

[Iceresistance]

ADT is now at 6, Roslyn is likely a Category 4.

RAW T# has come down to 6.7.

[cycloneye]

Unless we get unexpected weakening due to an EWRC or a sudden increase in shear I would be very surprised if recon doesn't at least find a cat 4 later today. I think the forecast intensity will be increased significantly during the next advisory.

This mission is the most important in EPAC since the 2015 Patricia one.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...ROSLYN BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS IT TURNS
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 106.3W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES



Hurricane Roslyn Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
900 AM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Roslyn has intensified further during the past several hours, as
the hurricane continues to show a small well-defined eye inside of
a cold central dense overcast. Given the rate of intensification,
the actual intensity is a bit of a moving target. However, the
latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are
currently in the 105-115 kt range, and based on the latest CIMSS
Advanced Dvorak Technique estimate the initial intensity is
increased to 115 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is currently enroute to investigate Roslyn.

The initial motion is now north-northwestward, or 330/7 kt. The
track forecast philosophy is unchanged from the previous advisory.
Roslyn is expected to continue recurving around the western
periphery of a mid-level high centered over Mexico during the next
36 hours. The track guidance continues to indicate that the
hurricane will pass just offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico,
tonight, and then accelerate north-northeastward on Sunday, likely
making landfall on the coast of the Mexican state of Nayarit. After
landfall, Roslyn or its remnants are expected to accelerate toward
the northeast over northern Mexico. The new forecast track has
mainly noise-level adjustments from the previous forecast, and it
lies near the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for continued strengthening during the
next 6-12 h, and the new intensity forecast calls for Roslyn to
strengthen some more during that time. After that, increasing
southwesterly vertical shear and land interaction should cause some
weakening before landfall. However, Roslyn is still expected to be
at or near major hurricane strength when it makes landfall on
Sunday. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall as Roslyn moves
through the mountains of the Sierra Madre Occidentals. The
intensity forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low by
48 h and dissipate soon thereafter. However, both of these could
occur earlier than currently forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Roslyn is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength
when it passes near and makes landfall along the west-central coast
of Mexico Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by damaging winds
and a dangerous storm surge. Preparations within the Hurricane
Warning area along the west-central coast of Mexico should be
rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal southwestern and
west-central Mexico.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 18.0N 106.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 19.2N 106.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 21.4N 105.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 24.1N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 27.1N 101.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Iceresistance]

Unless we get unexpected weakening due to an EWRC or a sudden increase in shear I would be very surprised if recon doesn't at least find a cat 4 later today. I think the forecast intensity will be increased significantly during the next advisory.

This mission is the most important in EPAC since the 2015 Patricia one.

Yep, Recon is also booking it at 407 knots (468 mph), there is no turning back.

[Yellow Evan]

Unless we get unexpected weakening due to an EWRC or a sudden increase in shear I would be very surprised if recon doesn't at least find a cat 4 later today. I think the forecast intensity will be increased significantly during the next advisory.

This mission is the most important in EPAC since the 2015 Patricia one.

You’re forgetting Hector and Lane (and the Willa one that turned back in the outer bands) from 2018 already.

[Iceresistance]

Unless we get unexpected weakening due to an EWRC or a sudden increase in shear I would be very surprised if recon doesn't at least find a cat 4 later today. I think the forecast intensity will be increased significantly during the next advisory.

This mission is the most important in EPAC since the 2015 Patricia one.

You’re forgetting Hector and Lane (and the Willa one that turned back in the outer bands) from 2018 already.

Roslyn has yet to get a Recon sample and she is already looking powerful, just like Patricia.

[zeehag]

roslyn is too pretty.
pretty storms are deadly.
i hope roslyn gives san blas a break.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I hate to say it, but Roslyn reminds me a lot of some of the Gulf Coast monsters we've seen the last few years. Hopefully everyone in Mexico is ready.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Recon has reached the Pacific Ocean.

[cycloneye]

Ok folks, let's see what Roslyn has. Plane is in the Pacific.

[kevin]

ADT says 940mb/122kt and NHC currently has it at 950mb/115kt. I'm very interested to see how close those numbers will be to Roslyn's actual intensity. We'll find out soon enough.

[Iceresistance]

ADT says 940mb/122kt and NHC currently has it at 950mb/115kt. I'm very interested to see how close those numbers will be to Roslyn's actual intensity. We'll find out soon enough.

Recon is descending, here we go!

[cycloneye]

Looks like is going to make the first pass from SE to NW.

[aspen]

TT says recon is traveling at over 1,500 knots…I don’t think that’s even possible. They have started to turn towards the center yet.

[Iceresistance]

TT says recon is traveling at over 1,500 knots…I don’t think that’s even possible. They have started to turn towards the center yet.

It just updated, the data got bugged out and they have turned toward the center.

[cycloneye]

There is incomplete data such as the pressure and SFMR but hopefully they fix it.