EPAC: ROSLYN - Remnants

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like data transmission problems.

[tolakram]

saved loop

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso2-02-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Hurricane2022]

What's going on with Recon? It can't be that another recon will come home like yesterday...

[aspen]

They’re circling just outside the eyewall for some reason. Altitude hasn’t changed, so it’s unclear if they’re about to turn back due to equipment failures, or are performing a search-and-rescue.

You can never guarantee a successful AF plane flight until it has finally made a pass through the eyewall. There’s a chance the mission is about to end, and it’s so close.

[NotoSans]

953mb extrapolated for the first pass.

[cycloneye]

Pressure is now working. Down to 953 mbs.

[Nimbus]

That is scary, some pretty expensive beach front property in the area that will be in the northeastern quadrant.

[cheezyWXguy]

Pressure is now working. Down to 953 mbs.

Doesn’t look to me like they completely got the center.

[aspen]

Pressure is now working. Down to 953 mbs.

Doesn’t look to me like they completely got the center.

This might be a case where only part of the eye is clear and the true center is slightly offset from the visible eye. Let’s see where the next pass finds it. Data from the NW eyewall suggests there’s an EWRC, due to a spike in winds at about 90 kt.

[ElectricStorm]

That doesn't look like an EWRC to me considering the "spike" is only a 5kt increase on one side of the eye. I feel like the term EWRC has been thrown around a lot this year for every storm, even though most of the time that hasn't been the case.

I could be wrong of course but I don't think there's an EWRC at the current moment

[Hurricane2022]

Pressure is now working. Down to 953 mbs.

Doesn’t look to me like they completely got the center.

This might be a case where only part of the eye is clear and the true center is slightly offset from the visible eye. Let’s see where the next pass finds it. Data from the NW eyewall suggests there’s an EWRC, due to a spike in winds at about 90 kt.

Data from SW eyewall suggests there's not an EWRC

[Yellow Evan]

Would wager Recon finds 105-110 knots on NE so marginally weaker than expected.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2022 Time : 172020 UTC
Lat : 18:25:12 N Lon : 106:34:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940mb / 122kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -21.4C Cloud Region Temp : -71.8C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

This is probably wrong.

[cycloneye]

Eye is closed.

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP192022
A. 22/17:29:20Z
B. 18.36 deg N 106.55 deg W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 956 mb
E. 075 deg 8 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. NA
I. NA
J. 204 deg 109 kt
K. 116 deg 12 nm 17:26:00Z
L. NA
M. NA
N. 031 deg 110 kt
O. 307 deg 10 nm 17:33:00Z
P. 8 C / 3047 m
Q. 19 C / 3032 m
R. 1 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF301 0219E ROSLYN OB 08
MAX FL WIND 110 KT 307 / 10 NM 17:33:00Z
;

[Yellow Evan]

955 mbar per dropsonde.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Roslyn Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192022
1200 PM MDT Sat Oct 22 2022

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER NOW INVESTIGATING ROSLYN...
...FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[galaxy401]

Pressure is now working. Down to 953 mbs.

Doesn’t look to me like they completely got the center.

This might be a case where only part of the eye is clear and the true center is slightly offset from the visible eye. Let’s see where the next pass finds it. Data from the NW eyewall suggests there’s an EWRC, due to a spike in winds at about 90 kt.

No offense but you love to blurt out a EWRC at any single little data about the eyewall.

[cheezyWXguy]

Doesn’t look to me like they completely got the center.

This might be a case where only part of the eye is clear and the true center is slightly offset from the visible eye. Let’s see where the next pass finds it. Data from the NW eyewall suggests there’s an EWRC, due to a spike in winds at about 90 kt.

No offense but you love to blurt out a EWRC at any single little data about the eyewall.

Tbh I can see a case for it based on satellite presentation over the past few hours. I’m kind of wondering if one already occurred and is finishing up, as the eye we’ve been seeing on satellite, even during the overnight hours, looked a fair bit smaller than 20 miles.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 22 OCT 2022 Time : 182020 UTC
Lat : 18:34:47 N Lon : 106:39:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940mb / 122kts


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 8 km

Center Temp : -18.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ22 KNES 221826
TCSENP

A. 19E (ROSLYN)

B. 22/1731Z

C. 18.4N

D. 106.6W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CLOUD-FILLED OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B
RESULTS IN AN E# OF 5.5 WITH EADJ +0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.0. MET=5.0 AND
PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

For comparison with Recon purposes.