ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Central Subtropical Atlantic:
Satellite and Bermuda radar images indicate that the low pressure
system located about 100 miles east-southeast of Bermuda now has a
well-defined center and is producing a relatively concentrated area
of showers and thunderstorms. If the thunderstorm activity
persists near the center, the disturbance will likely become
a tropical depression later today or tonight while it moves
west-northwestward and passes near Bermuda. After that time, the
system is expected to turn northward and move toward cooler waters
and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds, which should
limit additional development. Regardless of development, periods
of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected over Bermuda
through tonight. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Iceresistance]

Next name is Lisa.

[zzzh]

ASCAT shows a TD.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1584605145517592576

[aspen]

All 94L needs to be without-a-doubt classifiable is just one more convective burst over the center, then we could have TS Lisa in the next 24 hours before it gets ripped apart.

[Sciencerocks]

Within my opinion this is a tropical cyclone and is now included in my archives. Disagree if you wish but that is my god given opinion.

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img923/5995/CfYA3T.gif

This loop shows it already recurving to a northward heading, which is a bit sooner than model consensus has been showing.
Also, here's the latest TWO:

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 25 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Atlantic:
Showers and thunderstorms have decreased since yesterday in
association with a well-defined area of low pressure located
just west-northwest of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are
becoming less conducive for development, and the chance of this
system becoming a short-lived tropical depression appears to be
decreasing. The low is expected to move northward towards cooler
waters and into a region of unfavorable upper-level winds by
tonight, which should limit further development. Regardless of
development, periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are
expected over Bermuda though this morning. Interests in Bermuda
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

Burst of convection.

[LarryWx]

Burst of convection.

https://i.imgur.com/jQHuj0X.gif

This is at the longitude of Bermuda moving due N, which is east of the model consensus. The models have been having it go NW to NNW from Bermuda. So, the LLC (or remnant center) is more likely to stay offshore the NE US imho.

[Sciencerocks]