WPAC: NALGAE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

06Z EPS

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

The "original" 93W has gone poof while convection is really blossoming over where JTWC relocated it. Looks like two separate entities to me.

[mrbagyo]

12z is of both GFS and Euro has trended a little bit west again

[Hayabusa]

12Z Euro back to landfall again

EPS

[Hayabusa]

18Z EPS

[Hayabusa]

TC warning

WTPQ50 ‎RJTD ‎260000
RSMC ‎TROPICAL ‎CYCLONE ‎ADVISORY
NAME ‎ ‎TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN ‎ ‎260000UTC ‎12.6N ‎134.9E ‎POOR
MOVE ‎ ‎N ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎1004HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎030KT
GUST ‎ ‎045KT
FORECAST
24HF ‎ ‎270000UTC ‎12.2N ‎131.1E ‎80NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎W ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎1000HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎035KT
GUST ‎ ‎050KT
48HF ‎ ‎280000UTC ‎13.3N ‎129.0E ‎130NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎996HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎040KT
GUST ‎ ‎060KT
72HF ‎ ‎290000UTC ‎15.1N ‎125.9E ‎200NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎09KT
PRES ‎ ‎990HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎050KT
GUST ‎ ‎070KT
96HF ‎ ‎300000UTC ‎16.2N ‎123.9E ‎280NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎WNW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT
120HF ‎310000UTC ‎18.0N ‎122.5E ‎390NM ‎70%
MOVE ‎ ‎NW ‎06KT
PRES ‎ ‎980HPA
MXWD ‎ ‎060KT
GUST ‎ ‎085KT ‎=

[mrbagyo]

18Z EPS
https://i.imgur.com/ojnFeOL.gif

Zeb, is that you?

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 260200

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
11.0N 135.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.9E, APPROXIMATELY 935 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING, DISORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. A 260011Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS REVEALS A
NICE SIZED WIND FIELD OF 15-20 KNOTS WRAPPING TOWARDS THE LLCC WITH A
PLETHORA OF 25-30 KNOTS WINDS EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERN SECTION. 93W STILL
HAS SOME WORK TO DO TO GET DOWN TO A MORE CONSOLIDATED AND VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM, BUT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH
GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND INCREASES IN THE 850MB
VORTICITY SIGNATURES. DETERMINISTIC AND PROBABILISTIC MODELS ARE IN
ALIGNMENT THAT THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION WILL
CONSOLIDATE MORE INTO A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER, AND RAPIDLY
DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY AS IT WANDERS TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[doomhaMwx]

93W is still broad and all that convection is actually south of the LLCC. As JTWC mentioned, "it still has some work to do."

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Latest 00Z landfall

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

Much fewer strong ensemble members on this run too.

[Hayabusa]

EPS 06Z, more south landfall

[mrbagyo]

[Hayabusa]

Latest GFS 18Z now makes landfall, yep it just seemed very unlikely for a classic recurve in late October La Nina.

[mrbagyo]

12z Euro is much weaker and more south

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades.

26W INVEST 221027 0000 12.6N 130.7E WPAC 25 1000