Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[aspen]

I’m wary about this system, just because I didn’t expect much or anything out of Julia, and it became a hurricane at landfall and killed nearly 100 people. Ian also had a bad structure and seemed like it wouldn’t do much at one point…nothing else needs to be said.

It’s a little too early to guess what this system’s ceiling will be if it forms. A Bonnie or Julia-like track could have a C2/3 ceiling, slightly further north could be a lot higher, and I have no idea what to expect from a GFS-like Lenny/Omar hybrid track.

[blp]

https://i.imgur.com/9ulmoyV.jpg
12z GEFS

https://i.imgur.com/NpjQjOG.jpg
12z ECENS

This shows a sig uptick in the W Car on the 12Z EPS vs 0Z.

Big uptick indeed for EPS now has more members than GEFS. Also several further north. Interesting.

[MetroMike]

18Z GFS a little more sane route through the Caribbean then putting on the brakes and going backwards like eariler.

[cycloneye]

8 PM

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by
early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development as the low moves generally
westward or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean by the end
of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[blp]

Another ramp up in EPS for the 18z over the 12z. It also looks further North closer to the GFS. I would not be surprised if the Euro starts moving a little toward the GFS.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS: no TCG until the C Car. Much more reasonable.

Edit: But then it forms a 2nd one behind it in the C Car that goes east lol. I'm not counting this part as reasonable lmao.

[dexterlabio]

0Z GFS: no TCG until the C Car. Much more reasonable.

Edit: But then it forms a 2nd one behind it in the C Car that goes east lol. I'm not counting this part as reasonable lmao.

I feel like the GFS is once again showing its north/east bias with this potential cyclone, but I expect it to adjust once a discernible circulation has formed. I said this because the model might have been doing the same with a potential typhoon in the WPAC atm.

[ouragans]

2AM

3. Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea by
early this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for gradual development as the low moves generally
westward or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean by the end
of the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[wxman57]

I think the EC and ICON solutions look good - weaker low moving into Central America next Wed/Thu. GFS can’t help itself with the hurricane in the northern Caribbean and another giant non-tropical low forming in the Eastern Caribbean. However, the GFS appears to be shifting to a Central America impact, which is climatologically normal.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the eastern Caribbean Sea
this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development as the disturbance moves generally westward
or west-northwestward into the central Caribbean early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1585240124136181760

[ronjon]

Most of the major globals are now at least weakly developing (i.e. Euro) or significantly developing (i.e. GFS/CMC) this feature and moving it west into the Yuc/Belieze area in 10 days...a long way out. Find it mildly interesting that the Euro has a deep trough in 10 days pulling whatever left of this disturbance into the GOM. GFS on the other hand has strong 500 mb riding keeping the remnants of the low in CA.

[GCANE]

I see this developing stronger than current model forecast.
This will be on the SW side of an UL trough when it gets near the islands.
That enhances outflow and could spin this up then.
A stronger TC will steer more to the NW than W, as opposed to what the models are currently forecasting.

[aspen]

GFS shows the disturbance getting tucked under a small UL anticyclone and a reduction in UL shear around 10/30-31. That’ll be the earliest we could see development out of this.

[cycloneye]

Breaking News=Recon for Saturday.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1585298994623676416

[tropicwatch]

With a HH flight tentatively scheduled to fly Saturday. You would think development chances would be higher at this point. Unusual to see a flight scheduled before a low develops.

[WiscoWx02]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

[aspen]

12z GFS has an Eta 2.0 — the system has almost the exact same track and time frame with a MH landfall in Nicaragua on the morning of November 3rd. It and the ICON show it gaining latitude in the central-west Caribbean before losing latitude as it nears CA.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

Wait, what sources on Twitter are you referring to exactly? There are some "sources" on Twitter that aren't that reliable, just as a cautionary note