Possible Development in the Eastern Caribbean (Is Invest 95L)

[cycloneye]

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the disturbance moves generally
westward or west-northwestward over the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1585298994623676416

The GFS having completely backed off of the E Car TCG and subsequent strengthening to a MH in the E Car on numerous runs is quite telling about convective feedback (or whatever model bias is the main cause) though not at all a surprise. The GFS does this often. Example: 25 straight runs in mid May for TCG, including numerous runs with hurricanes, that turned out be nothing. I will continue to take its solutions with a grain of salt. The models that have all along had no more than weak development until at least the C Car (just about all other models) are almost definitely going to turn out right. I continue to think there will be nothing more than a weak low at least til the C Car. It may or may not have TCG afterward but I expect any strengthening into a TD to wait til the W half of the Car as per climo considerations. The SW Caribbean is the most favored area for that as of now.

[WiscoWx02]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

Wait, what sources on Twitter are you referring to exactly? There are some "sources" on Twitter that aren't that reliable, just as a cautionary note

Weather experts like Derek Ort, Andy Hazelton definitely doesn't sound thrilled, WxMan on here doesn't seem to think much will happen...just to name a few.

[LarryWx]

With a HH flight tentatively scheduled to fly Saturday. You would think development chances would be higher at this point. Unusual to see a flight scheduled before a low develops.

I think that the GFS' presumed bigtime over-strengthening on numerous runs in the E Car is affecting decisions to an extent. If those GFS hadn't existed, I doubt there'd be this flight scheduled so early and with no low yet.

[LarryWx]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

When you say the upper level environment looks really good, where are you referring to and when? Thanks in advance.

[cycloneye]

12z EC early to begin development and that is a big change from prior runs.

[Category5Kaiju]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

Wait, what sources on Twitter are you referring to exactly? There are some "sources" on Twitter that aren't that reliable, just as a cautionary note

Weather experts like Derek Ort, Andy Hazelton definitely doesn't sound thrilled, WxMan on here doesn't seem to think much will happen...just to name a few.

Well I mean this isn't all that surprising; it is sometimes the best decision to remain conservative until you see formation, and then once formation occurs, judging by the upper-level environment and that stuff, you can surmise clues as to where the storm will go and how strong it can become. Having late-season beasts in the Caribbean, especially around the late October/November timeframe and in a La Nina year (mind you, this year also seems to be seeing quite the delay but not denial in activity) are not exactly unheard of.

[USTropics]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

Wait, what sources on Twitter are you referring to exactly? There are some "sources" on Twitter that aren't that reliable, just as a cautionary note

Weather experts like Derek Ort, Andy Hazelton definitely doesn't sound thrilled, WxMan on here doesn't seem to think much will happen...just to name a few.

Most of the reliable models have a low pressure forming, and chances are moderate we get a quick spin up before it comes ashore or just skirts to the north of Nicaragua. Here is a snapshot for 06z on 11/2 from the latest respective model runs:









The GFS is way overdoing it on rate of cyclogenesis and intensity (not uncommon for this region). Intensity will definitely be capped imo, but we've seen many times low pressure area + frictional force of geographical topography can get a weak-moderate system in this region as it approaches the coast. Will definitely be keeping an eye on it, and not going to call out anyone, but some promets on twitter (and former posters here) typically downcast systems that aren't sure locks for significant intensification. Regardless of development, rain will be the most significant issue.

[LarryWx]

12z EC early to begin development and that is a big change from prior runs.

https://i.imgur.com/kDpsY79.gif

Indeed, this Euro run is quite notable vs all of its earlier runs with a weak low forming in the C Car. First Euro having that as opposed to waiting til the W Car for a very weak low at most.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is sticking with a very weak low near the ABC islands on 10/29 followed by a move to the SW Caribbean on 10/30 and slight strengthening. Waiting for the rest of the run.

[WiscoWx02]

So I look at twitter and other places and see pretty much no enthusiasm for this system whatsoever, most doubt it'll even form. I'm still sorta unsure what to think of this area, the upper level environment looks really good but that doesn't seem to be enough right now.

When you say the upper level environment looks really good, where are you referring to and when? Thanks in advance.

Healthy anticyclone aloft over the Caribbean Sea which will aid in surface convergence due to upper level divergence and also will lead to lower shear.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z UKMET is sticking with a very weak low near the ABC islands on 10/29 followed by a move to the SW Caribbean on 10/30 and slight strengthening. Waiting for the rest of the run.

The 12Z UKMET finishes with the SW Caribbean weak low going into CA without TCG.

[LarryWx]

1. The 12Z EPS appears to be as active as any prior run in the C & W Car.

2. The 12Z JMA is further N than the 12Z run from yesterday as it has the weak low go to the NW Car instead of the SW Car.

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Eastern Caribbean:
An area of low pressure is expected to form over the eastern
Caribbean Sea this weekend, possibly related to the southern part of
an existing trough of low pressure over the area. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression could form by early next week
while the disturbance moves generally westward or west-northwestward
into the central Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Nimbus]

Lots of moisture getting sheared north up over Puerto Rico and there does seem to be a surface low.
Flooding risks north of the system if the trend continues.

[wxman57]

The GFS is the LAST model that I would believe. Euro and ICON look good. Weak low into Central America. Recon will likely be cancelled for Saturday. Another system that tries to develop as it nears Central America around the middle of next week. Meanwhile, I’m on vacation at Disney World this week. I put a block on TC development until next week.

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

The 18Z EPS is considerably less active than the 12Z.

[MetroMike]

The 18Z EPS is considerably less active than the 12Z.

Ok your block is effective now.

[weeniepatrol]