Texas Fall 2022

[Iceresistance]

I wish that this was a little further down into November.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/z500_nh_30d_anim.gif

[bubba hotep]

Model runs today look good for another widespread Texas rain event.

[bubba hotep]

[bubba hotep]

Weeklies show this pattern carrying on into December with above normal rainfall for basically the same areas that are cashing in right now. You can see the storm track from the NW into the SW and then kicking out into the Plains. Can we get some cold air over the top?

[Edwards Limestone]

QPF decreasing for south TX. Looks like another strong north/northeast TX event.

You guys have all the fun!

[South Texas Storms]

QPF decreasing for south TX. Looks like another strong north/northeast TX event.

You guys have all the fun!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022102706/066/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It has always looked like the rainfall bulls-eye would be over north and east TX with this event. I still think SA and Austin have a good chance to pick up 0.50-1.00 inch of rain tomorrow morning. Some lucky areas could get over 2 inches of rain.

[Iceresistance]

QPF decreasing for south TX. Looks like another strong north/northeast TX event.

You guys have all the fun!

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2022102706/066/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Curses! I think I see the San Antonio Force Field!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/p120i-1.gif

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff. The HPC maps show most of Houston Metro solidly inside the purple zone (1.5” +). They showed the same thing a couple of days before the system earlier this week so I’ll believe it when I see it.

Strong storm system will bring strong thunderstorms and heavy rains on Friday.

Mid latitude trough is digging into the SW US this morning and will begin to move eastward toward TX later today. Surface pressures over the Big Country of TX will begin to fall this afternoon as low pressure develops ahead of the approaching mid level low. Southeast winds will increase today allowing Gulf moisture to quickly return to coastal TX.

Mid latitude system will reach west TX early Friday with a northward moving warm front developing from the mid TX coast into SE TX…this boundary will become increasingly important with any severe threat for Friday. Surface low pressure that forms later today over NW TX will move SE toward coastal TX on Friday with large scale lift increasing through the morning into the afternoon. Tropical moisture will be brought quickly northward tonight on a 30kt low level jet with PWS of 1.8 inches by Friday morning over much of the region. As large scale lift increases over the developing warm sector, showers and thunderstorms will develop from southwest to northeast across the region. Cold front associated with the mid level low will sweep west to east across SE TX Friday afternoon with a line of thunderstorms. Mid level system will slow some into Friday night with lingering showers into the overnight hours over the area.

Severe Threat:
NW TX surface low is expected to track along a NW to SE positioned warm front on Friday. Best estimates is that this warm front will extend from near San Antonio to near Freeport during the day with a favorable warm sector air mass south of this boundary for strong to severe thunderstorms. Low level winds near the warm front will back to the ESE and this will enhance low level storm rotation with any SW to NE moving storms that cross over the boundary. Warm fronts can be notorious for tornado production when otherwise instability is low due to the enhanced wind fields near the boundary. Main concern is any discrete cells that develop ahead of the line of storms approaching from the west or cells that cross over the warm front. Depending on exactly where the warm front sets up on Friday morning will determine the area of greatest severe risk on Friday with areas along and south of the front having the highest risk. While currently just SW of the metro area, should the warm front move a few 10’s of miles further north this would tend to bring the higher risk threat into the Houston metro area. By midday a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over SC/C TX and move eastward across the region Friday afternoon…damaging winds will be the main threat with this line. Current think is much of the strong and severe thunderstorm threat will be over be 3-5 pm on Friday, but lighter rains may linger well into the evening hours.

Heavy Rainfall:
Moisture profiles deepen quickly overnight and by Friday morning a saturated air mass will be in place over the region. Strong divergent lift coupled with favorable low level inflow feed of moisture point toward heavy rainfall along with cell training from southwest to northeast. I am always wary of any sort of low level boundary that can help focus or sustain convection in the region and tomorrow there will be a slow moving warm front. These setups can help anchor and train convection and the overall pattern favors high precipitation supercell formation with both a tornado and heavy rainfall risk. Much of the heavy rainfall risk will depend on if storms can develop over the warm sector ahead of the main line as these storms could become significant rainfall producers. Will need to monitor the warm sector air mass and development Friday morning to see if storms can become sustained along the warm frontal boundary. Good news in this setup is the ground is dry and can handle several inches of rainfall. Rainfall rates may exceed localized drainage capacities and result in some street flooding regardless of the dry ground conditions.

Weekend:
Mid level system will be located over NE TX Saturday morning with much cooler and drier air mass filtering in from the NW. Low level moisture is likely to become trapped in the wrap around flow on the backside of the mid level low and result in an extensive cloud deck for areas along and north of I-10. It is hard to know when these clouds may erode and they could linger much of the day keeping temperatures in the 50’s under cold air advection and northerly winds. South of the cloud line temperatures will warm into the 70’s and where that line will be Saturday is questionable. Clouds should erode Saturday night with mostly clear skies on Sunday and mild.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[bubba hotep]

[Ntxw]

Mid to upper 50s and rain for NTX. Will feel chilly .

[Iceresistance]

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FgFUgSrUcAMuyg1?format=jpg&name=medium

What is it? It failed to load on my screen.

[bubba hotep]

The 12z Euro for your viewing pleasure

[bubba hotep]

18z hi-res models are all in. The ULL is going to move pretty slowly across the state with ridging over the top, which allows for some widespread 2+ totals.

[Edwards Limestone]

NWS Austin/SA calling their QPF shot. I like their optimism...

[Iceresistance]

There is a Tornado-warned supercell with a nasty hook near Chillicothe, TX

[ElectricStorm]

I think we need to start paying attention to the first week of November. Models are showing a nice trough coming through, and if the timing is right (big if these days), there might be some potential for a decent Fall season severe setup.

0z GFS shows a nice trough moving through


Dewpoints look pretty good for this time of year


Not a whole lot of CAPE, but looks like there will be some pretty good shear with enough CAPE to get the job done. Target date right now looks like 11/3 but like any potential setup a week out timing is subject to change. Right now I think we could see some sort of evening/overnight MCS/damaging wind threat with a QLCS tornado threat but it's still too early to get into specifics. Definitely something to keep an eye on though.

[Iceresistance]

Big line of rain/storms coming into DFW right now.

[Edwards Limestone]

Another event, another QPF bust for SA metro.
Significant break in the huge line on radar right over Bexar County. Already passed through now.

Oh well, better than nothing. La Nina suckssss. So over it.

[Iceresistance]

Another event, another QPF bust for SA metro.
Significant break in the huge line on radar right over Bexar County. Already passed through now.

Oh well, better than nothing. La Nina suckssss. So over it.

The San Antonio Force Field lives on!

[weatherdude1108]

Another event, another QPF bust for SA metro.
Significant break in the huge line on radar right over Bexar County. Already passed through now.

Oh well, better than nothing. La Nina suckssss. So over it.

The San Antonio Force Field lives on!

Just to SA's north, I got a line of strong storms with mostly a few close lightning strikes and some heavy rain, and a couple little gusts. 1.25" in the gauge now, and still raining. 60 degrees!

SA's cursed this year. That sucks.