Texas Fall 2022

[bubba hotep]

1.75" here to go with 2.5" from Monday and it looks like another 1"+ is on tap for much of DFW later today. DFW is at 1.50" putting the airport right on avg for October.

We need this type of setup in late January early February...

Yea, this would have been a pretty historic winter storm, given the slow movement and high qpf. Just need to get some of the cutoffs coming through this winter!

[Ntxw]

Models are building some pretty decent amount of cold air to the north in the medium range.

[WacoWx]

Radar returns are looking to put DFW in for a very wet few hours.

[Iceresistance]

It's coming down pretty good, I had an unplanned schedule change and is currently in Ada, OK at my Aunt's apartment.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m at 2.00 for the day, 4.63 for the week. Wow.

[Iceresistance]

Mesonet says that my area got at least .25 inch of rain. I'm currently in Ada, OK and the Mesonet station there got .5 inch.

[Iceresistance]

I'm sure that the last thing Y'all expect to see in November is this! 7 Days out!


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-2.gif

[bubba hotep]

I'm sure that the last thing Y'all expect to see in November is this! 7 Days out!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-2.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-2.gif

There is another potent system showing up in the models and it fits the pattern we have been in the last 10 days or so.



Let's go!

[Brent]

I'm sure that the last thing Y'all expect to see in November is this! 7 Days out!

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-2.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day7prob-2.gif

There is another potent system showing up in the models and it fits the pattern we have been in the last 10 days or so.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2022102900/ecmwf_z500_vort_us_55.png

Let's go!



https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022102900/240/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

Yeah we're not getting much from this one but everyone has been talking about that storm already. We'll see how it trends I guess. We had a bad trend here from this one where it's barely raining

[bubba hotep]

2.5" on Monday and then this made for a pretty awesome week!

[bubba hotep]

Pretty much like clockwork, the projected -NAO for NOV is fading, at least for the 1st half of the month. However, the pattern that set up in late October looks to carry on for a bit leaving the door open for more wet weather for Texas.

[starsfan65]

Pretty much like clockwork, the projected -NAO for NOV is fading, at least for the 1st half of the month. However, the pattern that set up in late October looks to carry on for a bit leaving the door open for more wet weather for Texas.

Is the NAO to stay positive for awhile?

[Iceresistance]

Pretty much like clockwork, the projected -NAO for NOV is fading, at least for the 1st half of the month. However, the pattern that set up in late October looks to carry on for a bit leaving the door open for more wet weather for Texas.

Is the NAO to stay positive for awhile?

Yes, it appears to be the case for now, the NAO was strongly Negative for October, it does appear to become negative again to start December.

[bubba hotep]

Our next major system could be the biggest rain producer yet. There is the potential for moisture surges from the WCAB and the EPAC. Track and timing are still up in the air, but there is potential for someone to really cash in.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty much like clockwork, the projected -NAO for NOV is fading, at least for the 1st half of the month. However, the pattern that set up in late October looks to carry on for a bit leaving the door open for more wet weather for Texas.

Is the NAO to stay positive for awhile?

It's probably just a case of the models being too fast with it in the extended range flip. There are medium range factors that support the NAO flipping negative at some point in November, probably the 2nd half.

[cstrunk]

2.78" yesterday through this morning! That definitely helps! Especially since it was over a long period of time. A good soaker.

[bubba hotep]

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has nearly a foot of rain within 10 days near Tulsa.

[Iceresistance]

6-8 inches of rain in just 2-3 days for most of Oklahoma on the 18z GFS?

[bubba hotep]

6-8 inches of rain in just 2-3 days for most of Oklahoma on the 18z GFS?

Yea, I think this system will have the moisture to really dump on someone