ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Might get a minimal hurricane out of this if the GFS/Canadian prove accurate.

[Category5Kaiju]

This is going to be a really small system which makes it harder to predict intensity.

Ahem, Keith from 2000 anybody?

[Sciencerocks]

[zzzh]

This is going to be a really small system which makes it harder to predict intensity.

Ahem, Keith from 2000 anybody?

No. Keith was a slow-moving hurricane. 95L is forecast to move very fast. More like Iris 2001.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea, at 500 PM AST (2100 UTC)

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1586810791231209474

[LarryWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/5784/YqDG79.gif

This shows it to still be tilted due to shear.

[ChrisH-UK]

GOES-16 Snow and Ice band shows there is a circulation however the convection is more to the east of it. White is low level clouds grey are higher clouds.

Source - https://col.st/4Yt1i

[aspen]

From the 5pm discussion. This might be why the HWRF made 15L into a compact pinhole storm in today’s 12z run.

Mid-level relative humidity is quite low (55-60
percent), but given the relatively low shear, this may act to keep
the system's structure small with a constricted radius of maximum
winds.

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

15L FIFTEEN 221031 0000 15.7N 74.4W ATL 35 1005

[CaribJam]

I do understand that PTC 15 is not of significant interest to many at this time, especially based on its projected track and what has happened so far during this bizarre/horrific season. It is against this background that I wish to express my appreciation to those persons/experts who have been posting model runs, graphic, current data and giving their expert opinion on PTC 15.
Much appreciated and wishing for a safe rest of the hurricane season to all S2K moderators, posters, readers and your families.

[Laminar]

I do understand that PTC 15 is not of significant interest to many at this time, especially based on its projected track and what has happened so far during this bizarre/horrific season. It is against this background that I wish to express my appreciation to those persons/experts who have been posting model runs, graphic, current data and giving their expert opinion on PTC 15.
Much appreciated and wishing for a safe rest of the hurricane season to all S2K moderators, posters, readers and your families.

Please keep posting.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TXNT24 KNES 311155
TCSNTL

A. 15L (NONAME)

B. 31/1130Z

C. 15.4N

D. 76.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LEE

[MarioProtVI]

It would not be 2022 without POTC 15 struggling with organized convection despite passing DMAX and taking longer then expected to become a named storm. Guess those low RH values really are hampering this more then NHC thought.

Edit: 12z intensity guidance has considerably dropped this off and now barely makes it a weak-to-moderate storm. Expecting a big drop in intensity forecast at 11, at most peaking at 50 kt.

Edit 2:  https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1587057335456997377

[Subtrop]

NRL

15L LISA 221031 1200 15.5N 76.7W ATL 35 1003
al152022 LISA 20221031 1200 15.5 -76.7 L TS 35 1003

[Subtrop]

NRL

15L LISA 221031 1200 15.5N 76.7W ATL 35 1003
al152022 LISA 20221031 1200 15.5 -76.7 L TS 35 1003

AL, 15, 2022103112, , BEST, 0, 155N, 767W, 35, 1003, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 70, 0, 0, 1009, 160, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, LISA, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,

[Sciencerocks]

[LarryWx]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/2757/LHh4Ij.gif

Still not vertically stacked, but that should change as shear lightens.