ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Lisa isn't looking so good on visible imagery. Poorly-defined LLC, more like a wave axis. I have my doubts it will become a hurricane.

[MGC]

I'm really surprised the NCH upgraded. Lisa looks sick.....MGC

[aspen]

After Ian went from a loosely organized cluster of thunderstorms to a Cuba MH landfall in only like 36 hours, I wouldn’t count out or be surprised if Lisa also undergoes a phase of rapid organization in the next day or two. Ian showed how systems that look like garbage can turn around rather quickly in otherwise favorable environments. However, right now I think the NHC’s forecast is a good upper estimate, a Nana ‘20 repeat into Belize.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Tropical Storm Lisa
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJRgP8xGYVM

[GCANE]

Pretty good convection now firing over the CoC.

[GCANE]

The UL trof that was over Hispaniola early part of the weekend and kept a lid on development of Lisa did dissipate but left a remnant PV streamer over Lisa.
That remnant PV streamer is now quickly dissipating and is allowing the convection to form over the CoC.
This should allow a quick spin up of the vorts through 500mb.

[GCANE]

Recon did record a max rain rate of approximately 55 mm/hr.
Very high, indicating high latent heating which works to create a warm core.

[GCANE]

2 mb drop in 1.5 hrs.
Strengthening.

[ChrisH-UK]

With the way Lisa looks I wouldn't be surprised if it becomes a hurricane in the next couple of days.

Source - https://col.st/bypbS

[Category5Kaiju]

Top 5 reasons why I am keeping a close eye on Lisa, regardless of what models precisely say :

1. Late season storm happening during a La Nina with solidly cool 3,4 and 1,2 regions

2. Above average ssts in the WCAR (on the order of 29-30 C), along with high, virtually untapped UOHC

3. Small, compact nature of the storm

4. Roughly 48 more projected hours over water

5. Lowering deep layer shear over the storm

If there's anything I've learned from multiple past recent years, it's that nowcasting and saying a storm looks horrible = it will never become anything significant typically does not age well.

[Sciencerocks]

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Lisa is rapidly developing, plenty of convection forming around the center. This is a 2 hour loop of GOES-16 mesoscale.

Source - https://col.st/CupdJ

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/OSUWXGUY/status/1587177064569913344

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Lisa's definitely organizing this evening.

[ElectricStorm]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lisa Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152022
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 31 2022

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS AND
THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 78.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

[GCANE]

Another 2 mb drop

[Nimbus]

ABOUT 665 MI...1065 KM E OF BELIZE CITY

Pressure dropping at over a millibar an hour currently.
Models were showing a tropical storm when I looked earlier but unless there is shear in tonights runs we will probably see a low end hurricane.

[aspen]

I think it’s possible Lisa could have a southerly center reformation due to the much stronger convection in its SE side. If that were to happen, landfall would be much sooner in Honduras, likely at a much lower intensity than if it keeps tracking west into Belize.

[cycloneye]

AF plane departs. Let's see if it finds a stronger Lisa.

[GCANE]

Big tower firing off
Dense lightning.
Intermittent hot spots.