ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks to be an eyewall forming on the east side of the CoC

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... s16_85.png

[GCANE]

Deep into the ARWB now with strong anti-cyclone over the CoC

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[tolakram]

Live shortwave: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1587245071514099715

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1587245071514099715

Holy guacamole, that is not a good initialization by the models

[GCANE]

Looking at how MIMIC-TPW is evolving, this may go well north of Honduras

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

[GCANE]

That tower at 17.1N 80W looks interesting

[dexterlabio]

So this is not a GFS phantom after all. Although we have yet to see if it will indeed become a sub-950 system like the model was depicting days ago.

[Sciencerocks]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Still looks rather "wavey" to me. Lisa's organizing, but still battling shear I think.

[LarryWx]

So this is not a GFS phantom after all. Although we have yet to see if it will indeed become a sub-950 system like the model was depicting days ago.

This obviously isn't a GFS phantom. But what the GFS did poorly with was to almost entirely on its own have TCG in the E Caribbean on numerous runs. Also, it had on a good number of those runs a 930s to 950s MH anywhere from PR to the Leewards. It even had done "wrong way Lenny" type runs.

But in all fairness, the Euro, UKMET, and JMA also did poorly with no TCG until the W Caribbean, if at all, on many runs. The UKMET had just about all runs with no TCG anywhere. Many of its runs had only a weak low traveling in the far southern Caribbean.

The best models were the ICON and CMC with C Car TCG on a good number of runs while the GFS had the E Car TCGs.

[aspen]

The last two recon flights have shown that Lisa is still rather disorganized, with no change in intensity, but the LLC looks to have consolidated a little better on this flight. The center is at roughly 16.1N/81.0W.

[wxman57]

Looks better on satellite. May actually have a small area of 40 kt winds NE of the center today. The 40 kts yesterday may have been generous.

[GCANE]

3mb drop in less than 1.25 hrs

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1587434281994883073

[GCANE]

A low-level vort is forming along the Columbia / Venezuelan coast.
This could be the next spin up in the Carib that eventually leads to a possible STC or TC along the east FL coast.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Recon is getting 55 knot FL Winds on the NE Quadrant!

[tolakram]

floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-96-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[aspen]

Both SFMR and a drop in the max wind band support 50-55 kt for the 11am advisory