ATL: LISA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

AF303 descending

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone displaced SE of the LL vorts.
PV streamer starting to form over Lisa.
Could slow done intensification

[aspen]

Recon just found the LLC at 16.7N/83.8W. The SE quad has much higher winds (up to 45 kt) than last flight, with peak winds supporting an intensity of 55 kt. The pressure gradient is super compact with a pressure down to 996mb extrapolated. If no shear or dry air interrupts Lisa, it could undergo a formidable phase of RI with this structure.

[Nimbus]

To me, the most interesting item from the latest vortex message is the 5° difference in temperature in the core and the tightening of the wind field.

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)

This indicates the core is warming and will likely lead to the pressure continuing to drop and strengthening.

The sunset loop shows strong thunderstorms with a CDO starting to ramp up.
GFS waited till the 18Z model run to forecast a low end hurricane.

Don't know if recon will find a very deep pressure drop yet, but 24 hours from now there might be a 25% chance of cat 2 core winds over a small area of coastline at landfall.

[Iceresistance]

Holy Pinhole eye!

A. 01/22:39:00Z
B. 16.72 deg N 083.81 deg W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 997 mb
E. 130 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 44 kt
I. 119 deg 25 nm 22:28:30Z
J. 183 deg 44 kt
K. 098 deg 8 nm 22:33:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 046 deg 6 nm 22:41:00Z
N. 136 deg 59 kt
O. 046 deg 8 nm 22:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 21 C / 1520 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1015A LISA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 046 / 8 NM 22:41:30Z

[wxman57]

Yep, 997mb, as expected. Winds may be up to 55 kts now, though FL winds are only about 60 kts NE of the center.

[tolakram]

IR floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-13-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

regional view
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Caribbean-13-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[Teban54]

Holy Pinhole eye!

A. 01/22:39:00Z
B. 16.72 deg N 083.81 deg W
C. 850 mb 1399 m
D. 997 mb
E. 130 deg 7 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C6
H. 44 kt
I. 119 deg 25 nm 22:28:30Z
J. 183 deg 44 kt
K. 098 deg 8 nm 22:33:30Z
L. 56 kt
M. 046 deg 6 nm 22:41:00Z
N. 136 deg 59 kt
O. 046 deg 8 nm 22:41:30Z
P. 17 C / 1530 m
Q. 21 C / 1520 m
R. 19 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF303 1015A LISA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 046 / 8 NM 22:41:30Z

Now THAT'S what you call a pinhole...

[aspen]

The AF plane is leaving after just a single center pass. Meanwhile, the NOAA plane is about to make a center pass but its barometer isn’t working.

[aspen]

997/23 eye drop from NOAA3 supports 995 mbar. It did not find winds as high as the AF pass.

[GCANE]

VDM reported a pinhole
Closed eye, 6nm diameter

[aspen]

VDM reported a pinhole
Closed eye, 6nm diameter

Newest VDM reported a large 15nm eye that was open to the SE. The differing reports are probably due to the fact that Lisa is still in the process of wrapping its bands into one single eyewall; I remember something similar with Ian, within 12 hours of its Cuba landfall.

[aspen]

NOAA3 missed the eye. The closest drop they got recorded 997/57, meaning the actual pressure has possibly dropped into the lower 990s. FL and SFMR winds in the NW quadrant are both between 55-60 kt.

[cycloneye]

AL, 15, 2022110200, , BEST, 0, 167N, 841W, 60, 993, TS

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal152022.dat

[chaser1]

Belize in November? What a fantastic destination for a honeymoon, someone said

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1587598090910965761

[Hypercane_Kyle]

There is a growing possibility Lisa may make landfall as a Cat 2. I don't think Belize has seen many storms that strong in November.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1587646568068485121



A category 3 or even C4 'cane is starting to look a real possibility now.

[galaxy401]

Lisa is moving at a pretty quick pace so I don't think it will have enough time to become a major. Probably be another case of "if it had 12 more hours over water"...