Texas Fall 2022

[Cpv17]

That long range GFS keeps trying to be interesting

The CPC seems to think most of the cold will stay up north and the south and east will stay above normal.

The apps do get colder here after day 7 so we'll see. I always take the end of the GFS as fantasy but to see it trying to consistently show something is interesting anyway

Yeah I guess we need some more blocking up north to push it down this way. I guess we’ll see how long 57’s wall will hold up lol

[Brent]

The 0z GFS appears to be on the same path for fantasy land winter weather but in more immediate matters... Definitely gonna have to watch for severe weather with this

[cheezyWXguy]

The 0z GFS appears to be on the same path for fantasy land winter weather but in more immediate matters... Definitely gonna have to watch for severe weather with this

https://i.ibb.co/DbdwPGj/FB-IMG-1667361272112.jpg

System should be moving onshore in the Pacific Northwest in the next couple of hours, if it’s not onshore already. Suspect the data picked up for the 6z and 12z models will help modes converge on a solution and determine whether the slower nam or progressive gfs will come out on top.

0z model suite so far shows the nam holding steady as it has for several runs, the gfs nudging slightly slower but still progressive, icon a little slower but still progressive, cmc a little faster but inconsistent.

[Iceresistance]

I still do not understand why the GFS keeps speeding up the storm motion when it usually slows down here!

[bubba hotep]

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Remember to take anything past 7 days with a grain of salt.

[Cpv17]

Remember to take anything past 7 days with a grain of salt.

And even that is stretching it.

[TropicalTundra]

Remember to take anything past 7 days with a grain of salt.

And even that is stretching it.

I would say anything past 3-4 days since most hi-res models enter around 84 hrs.

[Iceresistance]

The 6z GFS shows the same thing, except it's for next weekend!

[cstrunk]

Yeah I'm not liking the potential progressive/eastward shift. I'm really hoping the NAM wins out...

[Iceresistance]

Yeah I'm not liking the potential progressive/eastward shift. I'm really hoping the NAM wins out...

Me and DFW got absolutely NAMed on the 12z!

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM still holding strong on a higher end severe weather episode. Given that it's so much slower and deeper than most other models, I would be inclined to write it off, but I am reluctant to do so because its consistency.

[WacoWx]

Assuming it is linear, what time is the NAM saying it passes through DFW? If we can expect a more discreet storm mode, would it be a similar time frame or a little earlier before the line clears things out?

[cheezyWXguy]

Assuming it is linear, what time is the NAM saying it passes through DFW? If we can expect a more discreet storm mode, would it be a similar time frame or a little earlier before the line clears things out?

If the nam is correct, discrete storms are possible along the i35 corridor after 4pm through the evening. The main line would come through around midnight-1am.

That’s still a big if though, as the gfs and euro are both more progressive with a more open system. This leads to the line moving through around 6-7pm with minimal discrete activity in the open warm sector. I am in high anticipation for the 0z model suite tonight, as the event should be within range of the HRRR, WRF, and RAP models by then and we should have some better indications on if the NAM is out to lunch.

[Iceresistance]

Looking into Late Next Week from the Local Met . . .


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2022-11-02-11.22.49-AM.png

[cheezyWXguy]

Hate to say it, but even the GFS's faster solution doesn't look to mitigate the threat too much on Friday, just brings it in faster. After reviewing the 12z Hi-res FV3, parameter space for NTX between 12 and 4pm looks favorable for discrete convection ahead of the line and even depicts supercells. Looking at the soundings, they don't even look all that different from what the slower NAM shows later in the evening. Bumpy ride setting up for the area...

[cheezyWXguy]

Great in-depth video on Thursday and Friday's setup
[youtube]https://youtu.be/tkf_uCyvIto[/youtube]

[WacoWx]

That YouTube clip has the sound of a potential major severe weather event Friday afternoon/evening. Just in time for rush hour.

[Iceresistance]

I was not expecting this today! This is the current maximum highs for Oklahoma as of 1:45 PM CDT


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/today.TAIR.max.grad.png

[HockeyTx82]

That YouTube clip has the sound of a potential major severe weather event Friday afternoon/evening. Just in time for rush hour.

It's Fall and we usually have a little bumpy weather around this time of the year. Will we have some severe weather. I suppose, but I don't think this will be a major event. But then again what do I know.