Texas Fall 2022

[rwfromkansas]

Looks like Reed is starting to think the NAM is wrong. So, probably just a minor severe event Friday.

[ElectricStorm]

Rare special Day 3 outlook from SPC adds an enhanced risk east of Dallas

[cheezyWXguy]

We can hope for that, but I wouldn't let my guard down for a couple of reasons:
1) All models, regardless of timing, show a favorable combination of shear, instability, and moisture for tornadoes for NC/NE TX on Friday
2) 3CAPE (0-3km CAPE), depicting low level instability, is forecast to be rather high, possibly exceeding 100j/kg. This is often lacking in our more borderline setups
3) Not just the slow NAM, but the faster 12z FV3 and 18z HRRR show discrete development east of the dryline in the early afternoon
4) The SPC's issuance of a Day 3 enhanced near or in the region suggests they do not see this as a low-end event

Based on the above, it may not matter much if these storms come in during the early afternoon or overnight, or as discrete cells or a broken line. The available model output is in agreement that conditions are good for at least a few tornadoes and a pretty hefty squall line. Still, there's another day or so for things to trend one way or another, so I'm still up for hoping.

[rwfromkansas]

There can be big events even earlier in the day, so that's true. A lot of time still to go. Growing up in Kansas, we had a tornado approaching just after noon when I was at school.

[mcallum177]

The dryline is faster towards dfw on 18z nam...how does that change things?

[cheezyWXguy]

The dryline is faster towards dfw on 18z nam...how does that change things?

Definitely brings the timing up in closer agreement with the other models, but still shows a very volatile environment.

[Patriot12]

When can we expect a pattern shift to cooler weather or at least a shot of cooler weather in Corpus Christi?

[somethingfunny]

We can hope for that, but I wouldn't let my guard down for a couple of reasons:
1) All models, regardless of timing, show a favorable combination of shear, instability, and moisture for tornadoes for NC/NE TX on Friday
2) 3CAPE (0-3km CAPE), depicting low level instability, is forecast to be rather high, possibly exceeding 100j/kg. This is often lacking in our more borderline setups
3) Not just the slow NAM, but the faster 12z FV3 and 18z HRRR show discrete development east of the dryline in the early afternoon
4) The SPC's issuance of a Day 3 enhanced near or in the region suggests they do not see this as a low-end event

Based on the above, it may not matter much if these storms come in during the early afternoon or overnight, or as discrete cells or a broken line. The available model output is in agreement that conditions are good for at least a few tornadoes and a pretty hefty squall line. Still, there's another day or so for things to trend one way or another, so I'm still up for hoping.

No reason to sleep on this one... the two big DFW tornadoes of the past decade were in December and October.

[Iceresistance]

We can hope for that, but I wouldn't let my guard down for a couple of reasons:
1) All models, regardless of timing, show a favorable combination of shear, instability, and moisture for tornadoes for NC/NE TX on Friday
2) 3CAPE (0-3km CAPE), depicting low level instability, is forecast to be rather high, possibly exceeding 100j/kg. This is often lacking in our more borderline setups
3) Not just the slow NAM, but the faster 12z FV3 and 18z HRRR show discrete development east of the dryline in the early afternoon
4) The SPC's issuance of a Day 3 enhanced near or in the region suggests they do not see this as a low-end event

Based on the above, it may not matter much if these storms come in during the early afternoon or overnight, or as discrete cells or a broken line. The available model output is in agreement that conditions are good for at least a few tornadoes and a pretty hefty squall line. Still, there's another day or so for things to trend one way or another, so I'm still up for hoping.

No reason to sleep on this one... the two big DFW tornadoes of the past decade were in December and October.

I'm not either, they can sneak up on you!

[HockeyTx82]

We can hope for that, but I wouldn't let my guard down for a couple of reasons:
1) All models, regardless of timing, show a favorable combination of shear, instability, and moisture for tornadoes for NC/NE TX on Friday
2) 3CAPE (0-3km CAPE), depicting low level instability, is forecast to be rather high, possibly exceeding 100j/kg. This is often lacking in our more borderline setups
3) Not just the slow NAM, but the faster 12z FV3 and 18z HRRR show discrete development east of the dryline in the early afternoon
4) The SPC's issuance of a Day 3 enhanced near or in the region suggests they do not see this as a low-end event

Based on the above, it may not matter much if these storms come in during the early afternoon or overnight, or as discrete cells or a broken line. The available model output is in agreement that conditions are good for at least a few tornadoes and a pretty hefty squall line. Still, there's another day or so for things to trend one way or another, so I'm still up for hoping.

No reason to sleep on this one... the two big DFW tornadoes of the past decade were in December and October.

I'm not either, they can sneak up on you!

I plan on getting some sleep.

[Iceresistance]

No reason to sleep on this one... the two big DFW tornadoes of the past decade were in December and October.

I'm not either, they can sneak up on you!

I plan on getting some sleep.

I do need some sleep because I've been awake since 1 AM this morning and I don't know how or why!

[cheezyWXguy]

0z HRRR is slightly deeper, slower, and remains cut off at 500mb. It appears the HRRR and NAM may eventually meet somewhere in the middle, I guess we'll see.

[Ntxw]

FYI the qpf forecast so far is not living up to the 4-6 or 6-12" from earlier medium range runs. We're also off to a warm start to November!

[South Texas Storms]

No surprise, trend is faster with the storm system on Friday. It's becoming more likely storms fire east of IH-35. The big rainfall total projections from a few days ago for central portions of TX and OK aren't going to verify. East TX looks nasty though.

[ElectricStorm]

0z HRRR is pretty insane for NE TX, hopefully that won't verify

[cheezyWXguy]

00z 3km NAM looks really bad. Here's the sounding for DFW at 23z on Friday

[Brent]

No surprise, trend is faster with the storm system on Friday. It's becoming more likely storms fire east of IH-35. The big rainfall total projections from a few days ago for central portions of TX and OK aren't going to verify. East TX looks nasty though.

Yeah my rain totals have been cut in half here I'm literally not gonna be surprised if it's basically all just one line that moves through in an hour or two. Not great

[bubba hotep]

[Brent]

When can we expect a pattern shift to cooler weather or at least a shot of cooler weather in Corpus Christi?

GFS likes the time period around day 10 but we all know how that can go every forecast/app up here does turn sharply colder around then though so it may be legit at least to a point

[ElectricStorm]

I'm not expecting much here in Norman. I think we might get downgraded to a marginal risk here. Maybe a thin line of storms around noon-1pm Friday but that's probably about it. The real focus obviously is NE TX. I think we could see a 10 hatched tornado area on the Day 2 but we'll see