Texas Fall 2022

[ElectricStorm]

This will be the most dangerous day we've had in the southern plains in quite a while, probably since May

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR SOUTHWEST
ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Friday into Friday night
across portions of the southern and central Plains into portions of
the Arklatex. Scattered damaging gusts, hail and a few tornadoes
will be possible.

...Southern Plains into AR/LA and Vicinity...

A complex scenario for severe thunderstorm potential exists on
Friday across parts of the southern Plains into the Arklatex
vicinity.

The large-scale pattern will be characterized by a potent upper
shortwave trough centered over the Four Corners/southern Rockies
vicinity Friday morning. As the trough ejects eastward toward the
Plains, a closed low is expected to develop and an intense 80-100 kt
south/southwesterly 500 mb jet will overspread portions of the
southern Plains by evening. Meanwhile, strong warm advection will
persist over the region on a 35-50 kt southerly 850 mb jet. This
southerly low-level flow will transport rich boundary-layer moisture
northward ahead of a cold front developing southeast across the
central Plains the lower-MO/Upper MS valleys, and an
eastward-advancing dryline across central/eastern TX. Mid/upper 60s
F dewpoints are forecast ahead of the dryline across TX into
southeast OK/southern AR and LA. Boundary-layer moisture will
diminish with north/northeast extent ahead of the cold front, with
low/mid 60s F dewpoints as far north as northeast OK/northern AR.
Widespread cloud cover will limit surface heating. However,
steepening midlevel lapse rates atop an unseasonably moist
boundary-layer will support moderate destabilization, especially
across TX where moisture quality will be best.

Thunderstorm clusters will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the
period near the cold front from northwest OK into central KS. This
initial activity will mainly be capable of hail and strong gusts as
the surface cold front shifts southeast across KS and western OK.
With time, warm sector convection is expected to develop in the
vicinity of the I-35 corridor from south-central OK into
north/central TX. Uncertainty remains regarding convective mode due
to differences in guidance with the timing of surface boundaries and
the ejecting upper trough. However, a mix of semi-discrete
supercells and clusters/line segments initially appears possible
beginning Friday afternoon. This activity will likely grow upscale
into a QLCS across southeast OK/northeast TX toward western AR/LA.
All severe hazards will be possible, including damaging gusts, hail,
and a few tornadoes (a couple of which could be significant).

Of note continues to be differences in forecast guidance regarding
the timing of the ejecting of an upper trough over the southern
Rockies Friday morning. The ECMWF/GFS solutions are around 3-6 hours
quicker with the eastward progression of this system compared to the
NAM/HRRR/HREF/SREF. This also has implications for the evolution of
the surface cold and the dryline. Given this uncertainty, in
conjunction with latest guidance from various CAMS, HREF and the
NCAR HRRR Neural Network Convective Hazards guidance, the Enhanced
risk has been expanded westward toward the I-35 corridor in
north/central TX.

..Leitman.. 11/03/2022

If the models continue to look like they do now, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 15 hatched at some point

[Iceresistance]

Noticed that I had a moisture surge this morning, the Dew Point was 56°F at 4 AM this morning, now it's currently at 61°F.

[rwfromkansas]

Man, clouds streaming up today. Muggy.

[Iceresistance]

Man, clouds streaming up today. Muggy.

Same here, it's likely a warning sign for things to come tomorrow . . .

[cheezyWXguy]

12z HRRR is slower than thr 6z, which was slower than the 0z. Any slower and it could start looking like the NAM for dfw. 12z NAM should be rolling out now

[rwfromkansas]

Starting to get more concerned for tomorrow. I think I let Reed's exaggerated descriptions of the differences in the models influence me too much. Even the "weaker" models still will maybe have significant severe weather for parts of northeast TX, just not worst case.

[Iceresistance]

12z HRRR is slower than thr 6z, which was slower than the 0z. Any slower and it could start looking like the NAM for dfw. 12z NAM should be rolling out now

Yeah, I've noticed that, someone mentioned on WxTwitter that a strong west shift would place Central Oklahoma in the highest tornado threat for Tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

A powerful storm system will bring a chance of strong and severe storms to eastern Texas on Friday night.

A strong upper level storm system moving into the SW US will eject into the southern and central plains on Friday and Saturday. This will result in a cold front moving across the area Friday night. Ahead of this front a warm and humid Gulf air mass will expand northward over eastern TX today and Friday. This air mass will become increasingly unstable with heating on Friday and showers will begin to develop after midday. As lift increases into Friday afternoon, thunderstorms may develop ahead of the cold front in the warm sector, mainly north of HWY 105. Weak capping in the mid level may prevent anything of significance from developing, but should a storm form, strong shear and instability will support all severe modes. Best chances of this are going to be in the Lake Livingston to Crockett region for Friday afternoon with scattered showers moving quickly northward elsewhere.

Friday evening attention will be on the approaching front with a line of developing thunderstorms. Frontal timing is still in question some with the global and high resolution guidance anywhere from 3-6 hours apart. A later frontal passage will reduce the severe threat some with lowering instability later in the night and increasing capping. SPC has outlooked the entire area with a slight (2 out of 5) severe risk and the northern portions of the area in an enhanced (3 out of 5). Damaging winds and tornadoes will be the main threat overnight Friday with the best chances again mainly north of I-10 and likely north of HYW 105. A much more significant severe threat…including the potential for a few strong tornadoes will be found just north of the area across NE/EC TX.

Front will clear the coast by early Saturday with drier and cooler conditions for the weekend before the boundary returns northward as a warm front starting on Sunday.

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[Ntxw]

Starting to get more concerned for tomorrow. I think I let Reed's exaggerated descriptions of the differences in the models influence me too much. Even the "weaker" models still will maybe have significant severe weather for parts of northeast TX, just not worst case.

Where storms initiate tends to outperform. Still though timing is difficult, some west of I-35 may not see much of anything or qpf for that matter.

[cheezyWXguy]

Interesting, the 12z NAM has sped up, and may actually be slightly ahead of the HRRR. More of an open wave with less neutral/negative tilt. Guess these two will be duking it out over the next several runs.

[rwfromkansas]

This is just to my untrained eye, but the NAM sure seems to be weaker and further east the last 2 runs than the 0Z. Is that accurate? But, HRRR is stronger.

[cheezyWXguy]

This is just to my untrained eye, but the NAM sure seems to be weaker and further east the last 2 runs than the 0Z. Is that accurate? But, HRRR is stronger.

Yep that’s accurate. A reassuring sign for sure, but it still looks bad. I’d feel more confidence if the hrrr would stop moving west, but maybe we’ll get a clearer picture with the WRFs and FV3

[Iceresistance]

This is just to my untrained eye, but the NAM sure seems to be weaker and further east the last 2 runs than the 0Z. Is that accurate? But, HRRR is stronger.

Yep that’s accurate. A reassuring sign for sure, but it still looks bad. I’d feel more confidence if the hrrr would stop moving west, but maybe we’ll get a clearer picture with the WRFs and FV3

FV3 and WRF are further west like the HRRR.

[rwfromkansas]

I love a good severe weather episode even IMBY, but not a tornado outbreak, so sure do hope it's not too strong regardless.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1588176633193807872

[cheezyWXguy]

So far the only model that has sped up is the nam, the others that are out as of 12z have either slowed or stayed the same. Appears we are converging on the HRRR solution

[HockeyTx82]

Ok, so as of now where and when is the worst looking to be setup? I've seen a few posts this morning and I'm confused.

[Ntxw]

Ok, so as of now where and when is the worst looking to be setup? I've seen a few posts this morning and I'm confused.

I would treat this as a typical Spring-like severe weather outbreak. Isolated tornado threat for any discrete cells and once the line congeals quickly and swings through (East Texas) straight line winds and qlcs spinups in that region which is where the highest odds are due to confidence levels. As noted earlier those west of I-35 may see very little if anything, east of I-35 greatest odds.

Parameters may look great but you need some qpf to make use of it.

[bubba hotep]

12z HREF really highlights the area East of I35 over to a line from Pairs down towards Tyler. That might be the area that faces the highest tornado threat outside of spin-ups along the line later on.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z HREF really highlights the area East of I35 over to a line from Pairs down towards Tyler. That might be the area that faces the highest tornado threat outside of spin-ups along the line later on.

Yeah if a moderate risk comes up in any of the SPC outlooks, I’d expect it to be for that area, unless the cams shift further west. The main drawback for that area is the potential for overcrowding of storms. Further west toward i35 has more uncertainty, as the models largely don’t show quite as extreme hodographs as further east, but they’re still strong and I am concerned the more isolated nature of storms that fire earlier in the afternoon may have a better ability to capitalize on whatever environment is available without as much interference.