Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[NDG]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

[MetroMike]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It still shows a hurricane once it’s in the eastern Gulf according to the 6z GFS. Check your latest sources.

[toad strangler]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It’s going to be interesting to see if this will be a prolific rain event. Obviously N of whatever flavor Low sets up.

[N2FSU]

Still showing a hurricane for the Gulf.


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[NDG]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It still shows a hurricane once it’s in the eastern Gulf according to the 6z GFS. Check your latest sources.

Yes I saw it but I don't believe that will be happening over the eastern GOM, especially being in the GFS's 5+ day range forecast. No other model agrees with it, I am sure it will be dropping that idea as well as we get within the 5 day range.
The Euro has been more consistent in the past 3 runs or so.

[NDG]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It’s going to be interesting to see if this will be a prolific rain event. Obviously N of whatever flavor Low sets up.

So far the Euro forecasts the most rains for east central FL, that will not be good for the still high St John's river basin.

[mantis83]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It still shows a hurricane once it’s in the eastern Gulf according to the 6z GFS. Check your latest sources.

Yes I saw it but I don't believe that will be happening over the eastern GOM, especially being in the GFS's 5+ day range forecast. No other model agrees with it, I am sure it will be dropping that idea as well as we get within the 5 day range.
The Euro has been more consistent in the past 3 runs or so.

agreed!

[Blown Away]

I think there is enough to put an Invest tag here.

[jlauderdal]

I think there is enough to put an Invest tag here.

NHC will take that under advisement. I think we have one this afternoon.

[gatorcane]

Definite spin south of DR. Looks invest-worthy to me.

[chaser1]

New 12Z GFS rolling; Now showing a bit quicker and deeper evolution to "sub 1000mb" at 54 hour forecast time...... interesting

[Blown Away]

12z GFS has near Cat 1 in 72 hrs

[cane5]

Glad the GFS dropped the idea of a hurricane and joined the rest of the models of moderate STS or TS coming west towards FL, but regardless strong winds and 20'+ waves just offshore will add to the beach erosion problems across east central FL, along with King Tides.

It still shows a hurricane once it’s in the eastern Gulf according to the 6z GFS. Check your latest sources.

Yes I saw it but I don't believe that will be happening over the eastern GOM, especially being in the GFS's 5+ day range forecast. No other model agrees with it, I am sure it will be dropping that idea as well as we get within the 5 day range.
The Euro has been more consistent in the past 3 runs or so.

Anybody check the ICON model ?

[Blown Away]

12z GFS back with Cat 1/2 into SFL in 4-5 days..

[chaser1]

Latest run pretty much brings (yet to be invest yet) Nicole, more or less over Miami, then Ft. Myers/Sarasota area at in the E. GOM moving northward at 126 hrs. Likely about to turn NNE over Central Fla ahead of the approaching short wave

edit: correction, more like W. Palm then Miami

[shah83]

If things pan out the way GFS thinks it will, the storm would probably be too small for the GFS to really resolve the actual low pressure. In other words, that landfall in the 12z ain't gunna be 980mb.

[GCANE]

The way this is firing in the Mona passage, it may stack earlier than expected.
And the way the GFS is trending, not looking too good for FL.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS.

[shah83]

CMC agrees on hurricane, thinks ridge weak and heads to Carolinas.

edit, well actually maybe heading to Canada as a hybrid storm? Wonder how much snow this means?

[SouthFLTropics]

12z CMC is trending stronger but turns it north just before reaching the east Florida coast.


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