Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

ICON coming in a bit stronger, approaching Florida east coast at 993MB as opposed to 1001MB on the 12Z (108 hours).

Yes indeed.

[Blown Away]

18z ICON… Farther W and much stronger Cat 1/2 into Melbourne.

[cane5]

Can someone please give update on the ICON MODEL ???

Makes a landfall around JAX.
Kinda hard to believe due to the strong Rossby Wave in the vicinity then.
GFS is good at forecasting UL synoptic patterns.
I am going with the S FL landfall as advertised by GFS.

Thank you but the ICON seems to make the call early and end up right. Being in South Florida I’m even a bigger fan of ICON.

[toad strangler]

He was rather bearish yesterday.

When isn’t he bearish

I can agree with his forecast, light breeze for south florida, a complete non-event for everybody in the east coast. If he doesn’t trust the GFS in any run, then I would agree with him.

I was bearish yesterday, today im mid range ts

I’m not sure if a warm core true TC would be worse than a subtropical gale. The latter in this case may have far greater implications for a huge swath of FL and SE CONUS coast. Precip & winds.

[AtlanticWind]

Can someone please give update on the ICON MODEL ???

Makes a landfall around JAX.
Kinda hard to believe due to the strong Rossby Wave in the vicinity then.
GFS is good at forecasting UL synoptic patterns.
I am going with the S FL landfall as advertised by GFS.

Thank you but the ICON seems to make the call early and end up right. Being in South Florida I’m even a bigger fan of ICON.

The trend in all the models today has been further south , I will trust GFS/Euro
over Icon everytime , I dont believe the Icon is even used for NHC consensus models.

[BobHarlem]

This thing is already overachieving with what it's bringing to Puerto Rico right now (more flooding), not liking these trends.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Well well look what we have here. Haven't paid attention to the tropics for a while until today. When did the models start showing this potential storm?

[cycloneye]

Flooding is occuring in many places and also some mudslides. Preliminary estimates so far are between 8-10 inches in parts of south and SE part of the island.

[Jr0d]

This is getting interesting. There was the Yankee Hurricane of 1935 that hit MIami in November with estimated 100 mph winds. While rare it is not unheard of for a hurricane to hit the east coast of Florida. Interesting is the Yankee hurricane formed near Bermuda and dove south toward Florida before taking a WSW path through the state (obviously we do not know the exact track).

Model consensus looks like we will see a hurricane and Florida will likely see landfall. The further south, the warmer the water and the water off the Keys is still warm enough to support a major storm.

Until a low is closed off and we have something to track, I am sure we will see more model swings. November storms are difficult to forecast, climatology is simply not there and the models in my opinion seem confused how to handle a tropical system this late in the year.

Going to be interesteing to see Wxman's take, he may not be so bearish anymore.

[GCANE]

ML vort is kicking in north of Hispaniola as can be seen on WV imagery

[gatorcane]

Somehow misses the east coast of Florida at the last second but stronger since it has more time over water. The GFS is slower so the trough gets it. The Euro and its ensembles are way south so we will see. Conditions seems favorable near Florida so that is a bit concerning.

[Blown Away]

Flooding is occuring in many places and also some mudslides. Preliminary estimates so far are between 8-10 inches in parts of south and SE part of the island.

https://i.imgur.com/mD5U0Us.gif

Wow, that is a soaking!

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS, somehow makes no landfall in the US at all, big change from prior runs.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS… CONUS miss after Bahamas… Much slower than previous runs and some weird big gyre before Bahamas…

[jlauderdal]

18z GFS… CONUS miss after Bahamas… Much slower than previous runs and some weird big gyre before Bahamas…

Yeah, the gyre deal seems highly unlikely, toss it

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles are coming in stronger so far and look to generally head into South Florida, not the recurve at the last minute before Florida the OP is showing.

[N2FSU]

GFS is slower and misses Florida because of a weird Fujiwara thing. Throw this run out.

[blp]

We need an invest on this. Too much model support to be ignored any longer. Interesting to see what the HWRF does with this.

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS… Many more greens, yellows, and now a few oranges… Appears the more latitude our AOI gets before HP pushes SW the longer it takes getting to CONUS and trough could catch it and miss… Majority of GEFS show FL impact in 4+ days…

[cycloneye]

50/80.

Southwestern Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located over the northeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
The trough is forecast to move northward over the southwestern
Atlantic on Sunday, where a broad area of low pressure is expected
to form north of Hispaniola. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for gradual development, and a subtropical or
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves generally westward to west-northwestward over the
southwestern Atlantic. Regardless of development, there is an
increasing risk of coastal flooding, gale-force winds, heavy
rainfall, rough surf, and beach erosion along much of the
southeastern United States coast, the Florida east coast, and
portions of the central and northwestern Bahamas during the early to
middle part of next week. The disturbance is also expected to bring
locally heavy rainfall to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands this
weekend. Interests in those areas should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.