Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[AJC3]

What's the under/over on the number of times the "Yankee" Hurricane gets referenced over the next 5 days?

[blp]

GEFS still further SW versus OPS run.

[Blown Away]

What's the under/over on the number of times the "Yankee" Hurricane gets referenced over the next 5 days?

https://i.imgur.com/C6Fb6Jx.png

I love FL climatology, so I would have mentioned at least once.

[Blown Away]

00z Ukmet…

[Blown Away]

Latest… Getting the look…

[Blown Away]

GEFS still further SW versus OPS run.

https://i.ibb.co/dQVLqk1/gfs-ens-z850-vort-eus-19.png

00z GEFS… Seeing more oranges in each of the past 3 runs…

[AutoPenalti]

Look for the ULAC to establish overnight.

[MetroMike]

Look for the ULAC to establish overnight.

Can you explain ULAC? Google does not help me.

[REDHurricane]

IIRC way back in August/September the CFS long range was consistently predicting something very similar to this exact setup happening in early November, but I don't have any model runs saved to show what I'm thinking of -- does anyone else remember this?

[REDHurricane]

Look for the ULAC to establish overnight.

Can you explain ULAC? Google does not help me.

upper level anticyclone, when the higher levels of the atmosphere are rotating clockwise, generally helps tropical cyclones form because it provides a mechanism for efficient energy outflow and lowers upper level wind shear cutting across the top of the storm

[Stormi]

ULAC - Upper-level anti-cyclone.
It essentially aids in ventilating the storm.

[blp]

Incoming ..

[FireRat]

Wow are those concerning model runs for South FL

This is about as nuts as it gets during November for this part of the Atlantic, almost seems like we could see something similar to the 1935 Yankee Hurricane. Looks like it could be more than just rain and wind if the trend keeps like this.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO… 997mb at @Ft Lauderdale landfall in @4 days… Much deeper/stronger than all previous runs…

[LarryWx]

1. The last few runs of models all have a TC eventually. So, I don't think we're looking at just the STC option any more.

2. Now that we're closer, it appears that the wx on Election Day will not be that bad in the SE US (other than coastal/marine).

3. However, the models are now all progging a TS or hurricane vs many not doing that before. Any direct impact to the SE US from this wouldn't start before Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. IF there later really is a hurricane that is progged to start directly impacting FL (SE or further north depending on what track it takes) Wednesday PM and keeping in mind the panic and prep that always occurs 1-2 days before in addition to evacuations, what do folks here think will happen as regards Election Day, which has its own chaos? Wednesday would already be too late for the most part with it starting to come in late that day. Does anyone think it will have to be postponed in Florida? Keep in mind that this situation would be totally unprecedented. I've yet to see anyone say anything about this.

Earlier when I was thinking about Election Day, I was thinking only about reduced turnout possibilities due to inclement wx on that day. Now it is potentially a much bigger deal than that.

[Blown Away]

1. The last few runs of models all have a TC eventually. So, I don't think we're looking at just the STC option any more.

2. Now that we're closer, it appears that the wx on Election Day will not be that bad in the SE US (other than coastal/marine).

3. However, the models are now all progging a TS or hurricane vs many not doing that before. Any direct impact to the SE US from this wouldn't start before Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday night. IF there later really is a hurricane that is progged to start directly impacting FL (SE or further north depending on what track it takes) Wednesday PM and keeping in mind the panic and prep that always occurs 1-2 days before in addition to evacuations, what do folks here think will happen as regards Election Day, which has its own chaos? Wednesday would already be too late for the most part with it starting to come in late that day. Does anyone think it will have to be postponed in Florida? Keep in mind that this situation would be totally unprecedented. I've yet to see anyone say anything about this.

00z runs all looked tropical instead of STS.

IF Euro is right TS conditions likely start Wednesday late afternoon in SFL, maybe the tight pressure gradient will enhance this?

OMG, the election madness!

I’m a big believer in Climatology and I struggle to support something that happens once every @40+ years. My climatology dependency has been proven wrong several times in recent years.

[eastcoastFL]

[jlauderdal]

00z EURO… 997mb at @Ft Lauderdale landfall in @4 days… Much deeper/stronger than all previous runs…

Nah, it wont verify..too much ridging, it will be south

[eastcoastFL]

Guess I’ll hit the stores in the morning and grab some water just incase before the mobs do when it hits the news. This is kinda nuts, a November east coast hurricane threat. I’m shocked this isn’t an invest yet, especially with the model support.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Guess I’ll hit the stores in the morning and grab some water just incase before the mobs do when it hits the news. This is kinda nuts, a November east coast hurricane threat. I’m shocked this isn’t an invest yet, especially with the model support.

Kinda nuts? This doesn't feel real lol