ATL: NICOLE - Models

[gatorcane]

06Z Euro almost identical to the 00Z but 2mb weaker:

[Blown Away]

06z EURO… Same as 00z

[cycloneye]

[gatorcane]

SHIPS and IVCN bring this to a hurricane, we will see in the 18Z guidance some more models like the HWRF

[Blown Away]

06z ICON… Significant shift SW and much stronger.

[Blown Away]

12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Thus far, 12z GFS is just ever so slightly north of 06z. Continuing with a stronger solution when compared to the Euro and CMC.

[NDG]

Last night's 0z UKMET.

[NDG]

12z GFS through 84 hrs.



Through 104 hours

[Blown Away]

Very large wind field!!

[NDG]

[MetroMike]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/yx8jGJc1/015-B0-D02-59-A9-4-E5-D-A44-E-54-E9-A6-E749-FE.jpg [/url]

12z ICON… Another SW shift with Cat 1 into Port St. Lucie..

ICON model is not really held in high regard and not used by the NHC for forecasting.

[NDG]

[jlauderdal]

12z GFS through 84 hrs.



Through 104 hours

Easy drive up 95 for landfall.

[LarryWx]

12Z CMC is consistent with earlier runs on bringing this in further north (Daytona). But the CMC is not a reliable model and often is lousy.

[NDG]

12Z CMC is consistent with earlier runs on bringing this in further north (Daytona). But the CMC is not a reliable model and often is lousy.

Actually it shows landfall over FL for the first time, previous runs had it staying offshore. So is fair to say that it keeps trending west.

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET landfalls near Stuart, FL, Thursday morning. It then goes WNW across C FL to the NE GOM followed by a sharp recurve to just off the SC coast as a somewhat restrengthening storm (becoming extratropical then?):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 24.7N 69.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.11.2022 24 24.7N 69.3W 1005 33
0000UTC 08.11.2022 36 25.9N 70.1W 1003 40
1200UTC 08.11.2022 48 27.0N 70.8W 1004 34
0000UTC 09.11.2022 60 27.0N 72.9W 1004 39
1200UTC 09.11.2022 72 26.1N 75.3W 1002 43
0000UTC 10.11.2022 84 25.8N 77.4W 1002 40
1200UTC 10.11.2022 96 26.9N 79.7W 1000 38
0000UTC 11.11.2022 108 28.0N 82.2W 997 36
1200UTC 11.11.2022 120 29.1N 83.6W 999 27
0000UTC 12.11.2022 132 30.6N 82.7W 1000 27
1200UTC 12.11.2022 144 32.7N 79.2W 997 38

 I'd ignore the wind speed forecast as the UKMET always is too low in the early stages. The track is what is most important.

[mantis83]

miami on south looks safe, at least on the weak side of storm....

[blp]

miami on south looks safe, at least on the weak side of storm....

Not yet. The SW jog could take longer and it could come further south before making the West turn. Just like with Ian we probably won't know until this thing is 24hrs out that is how close this is. I have seen the SW dive be a little unpredictable in the past.

[Blown Away]

miami on south looks safe, at least on the weak side of storm....

Not yet. The SW jog could take longer and it could come further south before making the West turn. Just like with Ian we probably won't know until this thing is 24hrs out that is how close this is. I have seen the SW dive be a little unpredictable in the past.

IMO, no way, that big jump N might be a bit smoother and not gain as much latitude which would bring 98L to SFL a bit sooner which likely comes S.